Abstract
The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR) hascarried out a researchproject to assess the impact of climate change on the river flow conditionsin the Rhine basin. Along abottom-up line, different detailed hydrological models with hourly and dailytime steps have beendeveloped for representative sub-catchments of the Rhine basin. Along atop-down line, a water balancemodel for the entire Rhine basin has been developed, which calculates monthlydischarges and which wastested on the scale of the major tributaries of the Rhine. Using this set ofmodels, the effects of climatechange on the discharge regime in different parts of the Rhine basin werecalculated using the results ofUKHI and XCCC GCM-experiments. All models indicate the same trends in thechanges: higher winterdischarge as a result of intensified snow-melt and increased winterprecipitation, and lower summerdischarge due to the reduced winter snow storage and an increase ofevapotranspiration. When the resultsare considered in more detail, however, several differences show up. These canfirstly be attributed todifferent physical characteristics of the studied areas, but different spatialand temporal scales used in themodelling and different representations of several hydrological processes(e.g., evapotranspiration,snow melt) are responsible for the differences found as well. Climate changecan affect various socio-economicsectors. Higher temperatures may threaten winter tourism in the lower wintersport areas. The hydrologicalchanges will increase flood risk during winter, whilst low flows during summerwill adversely affectinland navigation, and reduce water availability for agriculture and industry.Balancing the required actionsagainst economic cost and the existing uncertainties in the climate changescenarios, a policy of `no-regretand flexibility' in water management planning and design is recommended, whereanticipatory adaptivemeasures in response to climate change impacts are undertaken in combinationwith ongoing activities.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbott, M. B., Bathurst, J. C., Cunge, J. A., O'Connell, P. E., and Rasmussen, J.: 1986, ‘An Introduction to the European Hydrological System - Système Hydrologique Européen, SHE, 1. History and philosophy of a physically-based, distributed modeling system’, J. Hydrol. 87, 45–59.
Anderson, E. A.: 1973, National Weather Service River Forecast System - Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Tech. Mem., NWS-HYDRO-17, U.S. Department of Commerce, Silver Spring, MD.
Arnell, N. W.: 1992, ‘Factors Controlling the Effects of Climate Change on River Flow Regimes in a Humid Temperate Environment’, J. Hydrol. 132, 321–277.
Arnell, N. W.: 1996, Global Warming, River Flows and Water Resources, Wiley, Chichester.
Arnell, N. W.: 1998, ‘Climate Change and Water Resources in Britain’, Clim. Change 39, 83–110.
Bathurst, J. C. and O'Connell, P. E.: 1992, ‘Future of Distributed Modelling: The Système Hydrologique Européen’, Hydrol. Proc. 6, 265–277.
Bergström, S.: 1976, Development and Application of a Conceptual Runoff Model for Scandinavian Catchments, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund Institute of Technology, Bulletin Series A 52, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.
Bergström, S.: 1998, ‘Requirements on Climate Scenarios for Water Resources Impact Studies - A Nordic Perspective’, in Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Climate and Water, August 1998, Espoo - Finland, pp. 114–123.
Bergström, S. and Lindström, G.: 1998, ‘A Swedish Perspective on Climate Change and Flood Risks’, in Second International RIBAMOD Workshop on Impact of Climate Change on Flooding and Sustainable River Management, IH Wallingford, 26–27 February.
Beven, K. J.: 1989, ‘Changing Ideas in Hydrology: The Case of Physical-based Models’, J. Hydrol. 105, 157–172.
Beven, K. J. and Kirkby, M. J.: 1979, ‘A Physically Based Variable Contributing Area Model of Basin Hydrology’, Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24, 43–69.
Beven, K. J., Kirby, M. J., Schofield, N., and Tagg, A. F.: 1984, ‘Testing a Physically Based Flood Forecasting Model (TOPMODEL) for Three U.K. Catchments’, J. Hydrol. 69, 119–143.
Bicknell, B. R., Imhoff, J. C., Kittle, J. L., Donigian, A. S., and Johanson, R. C.: 1993, Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF): Users Manual for Release 10, U.S. EPA Environmental Research Laboratory, Athens, Georgia.
Bultot, F., Dupriez, G.L., and Gellens, D.: 1988, ‘Estimated Regime of Energy-Balance Components, Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture for a Drainage Basin the Case of a CO2 Doubling’, Clim. Change 12, 39–56.
Bultot, F., Gellens, D., Schädler, B., and Spreafico, M.: 1994, ‘Effects of Climate Change on Snow Accumulation and Melting in the Broye Catchment (Switzerland)’, Clim. Change 28, 339–363.
De Laat, P. J. M.: 1992, ‘MUST, a Pseudo Steady-State Approach to Simulating Flow in Unsaturated Media’, ICID Bull. CIID 41, 49–60.
De Lange, W. J.: 1991, A Groundwater Model of The Netherlands, Rijkswaterstaat, RIZA nota 90.066.
Gellens, D. and Roulin, F.: 1998, ‘Streamflow Response of Belgian Catchments to IPCC Climate Change Scenarios’, J. Hydrol. 210, 242–258.
Gleick, P. H.: 1987a, ‘The Development and Testing of a Water Balance Model for Climate Impact Assessment: The Sacramento Basin’, Water Resour. Res. 23, 6, 1049–1061.
Gleick, P. H.: 1987b, ‘Regional Hydrologic Consequences of Increases in Atmospheric CO2 and Other Trace Gases’, Clim. Change 10, 137–161.
Grabs, W., Daamen, K., Gellens, D., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Lang, H., Middelkoop, H., Parmet, B. W. A. H., Schädler, B., Schulla, J., and Wilke, K.: 1997, Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources Management in the Rhine Basin, CHR-report I-16, CHR, Lelystad. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 127
Gurts, J., Baltensweiler, A., Lang, H., Menzel., L., and Schulla., J.: 1997, Auswirkungen von klimatischen Variationen auf Wasserhaushalt und Abfluss im Flussgebiet des Rheins, Schlussbericht NFP 31, Zürich, Hochschulverlag AG.
Hulme, M., Conway, D., Brown, O., and Barrow, E.: 1994, A 1961–1990 Baseline Climatology and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Great Britain and Europe. Part III: Climate Change Scenarios for Great Britain and Europe, Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
IKSR: 1995, Grundlagen und Strategie zum Aktionsplan Hochwasser, IKSR, Koblenz.
IPCC: 1996, Climate Change 1995; The Science of Climate Change, Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.), University Press, Cambridge.
Klemes, V.: 1986, ‘Operational Testing of Hydrological Simulation Models’,Hydrol. Sci. 31, 13–24.
Kwadijk, J. C. J.: 1993, The Impact of Climate Change on the Discharge of the River Rhine, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Netherlands Geographical Studies, 171.
Kwadijk, J. C. J. and Middelkoop, H.: 1994, ‘Estimation of Climate Change on the Peak Discharge Probability of the River Rhine’, Clim. Change 27, 199–224.
Kwadijk, J. C. J. and Rotmans, J.: 1995, ‘The Impact of Climate Change on the River Rhine: A Scenario Study’, Clim. Change 30, 397–425.
Lawford, R.: 1998, ‘The GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project: Building a Bridge between Climate Science and Water Resources Management’, in Proceedings Second International Conference on Climate and Water, August 1998, Espoo - Finland, pp. 124–138.
Leavesley, G. H.: 1994, ‘Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources-A Review’, Clim. Change 28, 159–177.
Liebscher, H.-J., Wilke, K., Krahe, P., Schultz, G., Schumann, A., Su, Z., Hamme, B., Funke, R., Hornbogen, M., Ott, M., Bardossy, A., and Plate, E.: 1995, Entwicklung eines mathematischen Modells zur Untersuchung des Einflusses von Klima-und Landnutzungsänderungen auf den Hoch-und Niedrigwasserabfluß im Einzugsgebiet der Mosel sowie Echtzeitvorhersage unter Verwendung von Fernerkundungstechniken, UBA Forschungsbericht Wasser 102 01 304, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde Koblenz und Ruhruniversität Bochum, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie, Wasserwirtschaft und Umwelttechnik Bochum.
Middelkoop, H.: 1997, Embanked Floodplains in The Netherlands. Geomorphological Evolution over Various Time Scales, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Netherlands Geographical Studies, 224.
Mimikou, M., Kouvopoulos, Y., Cavadias, G., and Vayianos, N.: 1991, ‘Regional Hydrological Effects of Climate Change’, J. Hydrol. 125, 221–241.
Mortsch, L. D.: 1998, ‘Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Shoreline Wetlands’, Clim. Change 40, 391–416.
Panagoulia, D.: 1992, ‘Impacts of GISS-modelled Climate Changes on Catchment Hydrology’, Hydrol. Sci. 37, 141–163.
Parmet, B. W. A. H., Kwadijk, J. C. J., and Raak, M.: 1995, ‘Impact of Climate Change on the Discharge of the River Rhine’, in Zwerver, S., Van Rompaey, R. S. A. R., Kok, M. T. J., and Berk, M. M. (eds.), Climate Change Research. Evaluations and Policy Implications, Proceedings of the International Climate Change Conference, December 1995, Maastricht, The Netherlands, Studies in Environmental Science 65B, Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 911–918.
Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Schlesinger, M. E., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1990, Developing Climate Scenarios from Equilibrium GCM Results, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report 47, Hamburg.
Van Deursen, W. P. A. and Kwadijk, J. C. J.: 1993, ‘Rhineflow: An Integrated GIS Water Balance Model for the River Rhine’, in Kovar, K. and Nachtnebel, H. P. (eds.), Application of Geographic Information Systems in Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Proceedings of the Conference on HYDROGIS, Vienna, Austria, IHAS publication 211, pp. 507–519.
Warmerdam, P. M. M., Kole, J. W., and Stricker, J. N. M.: 1993, ‘Rainfall-Runoff Modelling in the Research Area of the Hupselse Beek, The Netherlands’, in Proceedings of the International Symposium on Runoff and Sediment Yield Modelling, Warsaw, 1993.
Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: 1992, Implications for Climate and Sea Level of Revised IPCC Emission Scenarios, Nature 357, 293–300. (Received 26 August 1999; in revised form 14 August 2000)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Middelkoop, H., Daamen, K., Gellens, D. et al. Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources Management in the Rhine Basin. Climatic Change 49, 105–128 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010784727448
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010784727448