Abstract
Three distinct models from earlier work are combined to: (1) produce probabilistically weighted scenarios of greenhouse-gas-induced sea-level rise; (2) support estimates of the expected discounted value of the cost of sea-level rise to the developed coastline of the United States, and (3) develop reduced-form estimates of the functional relationship between those costs to anticipated sea-level rise, the cost of protection, and the anticipated rate of property-value appreciation. Four alternative representations of future sulfate emissions, each tied consistently to the forces that drive the initial trajectories of the greenhouse gases, are considered. Sea-level rise has a nonlinear effect on expected cost in all cases, but the estimated sensitivity falls short of being quadratic. The mean estimate for the expected discounted cost across the United States is approximately $2 billion (with a 3% real discount rate), but the range of uncertainty around that estimate is enormous; indeed, the 10th and 90th percentile estimates run from less than $0.2 billion up to more than $4.6 billion. In addition, the mean estimate is very sensitive to associated sulfate emissions; it is, specifically, diminished by nearly 25% when base-case sulfate emission trajectories are considered and by more than 55% when high-sulfate trajectories are allowed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abraham, J. and Hendershott, P.: 1993, ‘Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977 to 1991’, in Browne, L. E. and Rosengren, E. S. (eds.), Real Estate and the Credit Crunch, Proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, pp. 18-56.
Bretherton, F. P., Bryan, K., and Woods, J. D.: 1990, ‘Time-Dependent Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change’, in Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.), Climatic Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 173-193.
Brookshire, D., Thayer, M., Tschirhart, J., and Schulze, W.: 1985, ‘A Test of the Expected Utility Model: Evidence from Earthquake Risk’, J. Pol. Econ. 93, 369-389.
Charlson, R. J., Langner, J., Rodhe, H., Leovy, C. B., and Warren, S. G.: 1991, ‘Perturbation of the Northern Hemisphere Radiative Balance by Backscattering from Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosols’, Tellus 43, 152-163.
Cline, W.: 1992, The Economics of Global Warming, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., p. 399.
Fankhauser, S.: 1994, ‘Protection vs. Retreat: Estimating the Costs of Sea Level Rise’, CSERGE, London.
Hammitt, J. K., Lempert, R. J., and Schlesinger, M. E.: 1992, ‘A Sequential-Decision Strategy for Abating Climate Change’, Nature 357, 315-318.
Hoffert, M. I., Callegari, A. J., and Hsieh, C.-T.: 1980, ‘The Role of Deep Sea Heat Storage in the Secular Response to Climatic Forcing’, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 6667-6679.
Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A., and Varney, S. K.: 1992, Climate Change 1992, Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 200.
Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.): 1996, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 572.
Lempert, R. J., Schlesinger, M. E., and Bankes, S. C.: 1996, ‘When We Don’t Know the Costs or the Benefits: Adaptive Strategies for Abating Climate Change’, Clim. Change 33, 235-274.
Lempert, R. J., Schlesinger,M. E., and Hammitt, J. K.: 1994, ‘The Impact of Potential Abrupt Climate Changes on Near-Term Policy Choices’, Clim. Change 26, 351-376.
MacDonald, D., Murdoch, J., and White, H.: 1987, ‘Uncertain Hazards, Insurance, and Consumer Choice: Evidence from Housing Markets’, Land Economics 63, 361-371.
Nordhaus, W. D.: 1991, ‘To Slow or Not to Slow’, Econ. J. 5, 920-937.
Nordhaus, W. D.: 1994, Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change, The MIT Press, Cambridge, p. 213.
Nordhaus, W. D. and Yohe, G.: 1983, ‘Future Paths of Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions’, in Changing Climate, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 87-152.
Ramankutty, N.: 1994, An Empirical Estimate of Climate Sensitivity, M.S. Thesis, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, p. 172.
Schlesinger, M. E.: 1993, ‘Greenhouse Policy’, Nat. Geogr. Res. Explor. 9, 159-172.
Schlesinger, M. E. and Jiang, X.: 1991, ‘Revised Projection of Future Greenhouse Warming’, Nature 350, 219-221.
Schlesinger, M. E., Jiang, X., and Charlson, R. J.: 1992, ‘Implication of Anthropogenic Atmospheric Sulphate for the Sensitivity of the Climate System’, in Rosen, L. and Glasser, R. (eds.), Climate Change and Energy Policy: Proceedings of the International Conference on Global Climate Change: Its Mitigation through Improved Production and Use of Energy, American Institute of Physics, New York, pp. 75-108.
Schlesinger, M. E. and Ramankutty, N.: 1992, ‘Implications for Global Warming of Intercycle Solar Irradiance Variations’, Nature 360, 330-333.
Schlesinger, M. E. and Ramankutty, N.: 1994a, ‘An Oscillation in the Global Climate System of Period 65-70 Years’, Nature 367, 723-726.
Schlesinger, M. E. and Ramankutty, N.: 1994b, ‘Low-Frequency Oscillation. Reply’, Nature 372, 508-509.
Schlesinger, M. E. and Ramankutty, N.: 1995, ‘Is the Recently Reported 65-70 Year Surface-Temperature Oscillation the Result of Climatic Noise?’, J. Geophys. Res. 100, 13,767-13,774.
Schneider, S. and Chen, R.: 1980, ‘Carbon Dioxide Warming and Coastline Flooding: Physical Factors and Climatic Impact’, Ann. Rev. Energy 5, 107-140.
Shine, K. P., Derwent, R. G., Wuebbles, D. J., and Morcrette, J.-J.: 1990, ‘Radiative Forcing of Climate’, in Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.), Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 41-68.
Smith, J. B.: 1996, ‘Standardized Estimates of Climate Change Damages in the United States’, Clim. Change 32, 313-326.
Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D.: 1989, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, EPA2300589050, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., p. 413.
Titus, J. G. and Narayanan, V. K.: 1995, The Probability of Sea Level Rise, EPA 230R95008, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., p. 186.
Warrick, R. A., Oerlemans, J., Woodworth, P. L., Meier, M. F., and le Provost, C.: 1996, ‘Changes in Sea Level’, in Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., and Callander, B. A. (eds.), Climatic Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 359-405.
Weyant, J. P.: 1996, ‘Second Round Results of the Energy Modeling Forum-14: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change’, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Stanford University mimeo, p. 48.
Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: 1993, ‘Future Changes in Global Mean Temperature and Sea Level’, in Warrick, R. A., Barrow, E. M., and Wigley, T. M. L. (eds.), Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 111-133.
Yohe, G.: 1989, ‘The Cost of Not Holding Back the Sea - Economic Vulnerability’, Ocean Shoreline Manage. 15, 233-255.
Yohe, G.: 1991, ‘Selecting “Interesting” Scenarios with Which to Analyze Policy Response to Potential Climate Change’, Clim. Res. 1, 169-177.
Yohe, G.: 1996, ‘Exercises in Hedging against Extreme Consequences of Global Change and the Expected Value of Information’, Glob. Environ. Change 6, 87-101.
Yohe, G., Neumann, J., Marshall, P., and Ameden, H.: 1996, ‘The Economic Cost of Greenhouse-Induced Sea-Level Rise for Developed Property in the United States’, Clim. Change 32, 387-410.
Yohe, G. and Wallace, R.: 1996, ‘Near Term Mitigation Policy for Global Change under Uncertainty: Minimizing the Expected Cost of Meeting Unknown Concentration Thresholds’, Environ. Model. Assess. 1, 47-57.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yohe, G.W., Schlesinger, M.E. Sea-Level Change: The Expected Economic Cost of Protection Or Abandonment in the United States. Climatic Change 38, 447–472 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005338413531
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005338413531