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The Spatial Diffusion of Racial and Ethnic Diversity Across U.S. Counties

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Abstract

Although increasing racial and ethnic diversity is a demographic trend with society-wide implications, it has advanced farther in some parts of the United States than others. Our research seeks to understand this unevenness at the local level. Drawing on 1980–2010 census data, we use an innovative spatial analytic approach to examine the spread or diffusion of diversity across counties in the 48 contiguous states. Three perspectives—locational persistence, spatial assimilation, and institutional hub—offer different expectations about the nature of the diffusion process. The perspectives are evaluated by mapping changes in the magnitude and structure of diversity and by tracing county transitions between types of diversity clusters. We document considerable stability in diversity patterns over a 30-year period, consistent with the logic of locational persistence. But support is also found for the spatial assimilation and institutional hub models in the form of cluster-type transitions that reflect contagious diffusion and hierarchical diffusion, respectively.

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Notes

  1. The two exceptions are Nantucket County, MA and San Juan County, WA, both of which are islands.

  2. This group-other type can span a range of racial-ethnic structures. For example, group-other counties might be rather evenly split between two groups (55 % of residents belonging to group A, 40 % to group B), have even representation from a number of groups (51 % from A, 15 % each from B, C, and D), or only minor representation from a group other than the majority (80 % from A, 15 % from B).

  3. Sensitivity tests were performed using both nearest k neighbors and a Queen’s 2 matrix as adjacency matrices. In both cases, LISA cluster results were similar to those obtained using a Queen’s 1 matrix.

  4. With LISA abbreviations, the first term always refers to the focal county and the second to the average value of that county’s neighbors.

  5. Despite an already rigorous threshold, we have run 20 additional significance tests (of 10,000 permutations each) to verify our inference that the clusters reported here are not due to chance. More than 96% of all counties retain their cluster identification across tests, indicating a sufficient level of significance for present purposes. Further information regarding the test results is available upon request.

  6. These maps are best viewed online in full color given the number of types required.

  7. A high degree of spatial autocorrelation exists in the county diversity data at each time point, based on Moran’s I values of .77 in 1980 and .70 in 2010. The Moran’s I statistic, which ranges from 0 to 1, provides a global measure of spatial structure. However, it cannot tell us where clusters are located within that structure.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, 211 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA, 16802, USA

    Michael J. R. Martin, Stephen A. Matthews & Barrett A. Lee

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  1. Michael J. R. Martin
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Correspondence to Michael J. R. Martin.

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Martin, M.J.R., Matthews, S.A. & Lee, B.A. The Spatial Diffusion of Racial and Ethnic Diversity Across U.S. Counties. Spat Demogr 5, 145–169 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-016-0030-8

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