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Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study

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Abstract

Background

The classical phenotype, accumulated deficit model and self-report approach of frailty were found not useful in older adults in northwest Russia. More research is needed to identify predictors of adverse outcomes in this population.

Aim

The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality, autonomy and cognitive decline in a population that is characterized by a high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rate.

Methods

A population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals 65+. Anthropometry, medical history nutritional status were recorded. An evaluation of cognitive, physical and autonomy function, spirometry, and laboratory tests were performed. The total follow-up was 5 years. Multiple imputation, backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis and the bootstrapping techniques were used to analyze the data.

Results

We found that the combination of increasing age, male sex, low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s and anemia was associated with mortality for people 65+. The substitution of anemia with anemia + high level of C-reactive protein (hCRP) and the addition of high brain natriuretic peptide (hBNP) levels improved the classification of older persons at risk for mortality.

Discussion/conclusion

The combination of low physical function, low mid-arm muscle area, low forced expiratory volume in 1 s, anemia with hCRP levels and hBNP identified older persons at a higher risk for mortality. These predictors may be used for the development of a prediction model to detect older people who are at risk for adverse health outcomes in northwest Russia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut de Recherche Santé et Société, Université Catholique de Louvain, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs, 30 bte 30.05, 1200, Woluwe-Saint-Lambert, Brussels, Belgium

    Anna Turusheva, Eralda Hegendoerfer & Jean-Marie Degryse

  2. The Northwestern State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov, Prosveshenya 45, St. Petersburg, Russia, 194 291

    Elena Frolova

  3. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, KU Leuven, Kapucijnenvoer 35 Blok d, Box 7001, 3000, Louvain, Belgium

    Jean-Marie Degryse

Authors
  1. Anna Turusheva
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  2. Elena Frolova
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  3. Eralda Hegendoerfer
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  4. Jean-Marie Degryse
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Anna Turusheva.

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Conflict of interest

This work was supported by the President of the Russian Federation (Grant 192-RP) and the Foundation Louvain. On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. The local medical ethic review board (The Medical Academy for Postgraduate Studies, protocol N 17 from 05.11.2008) approved this study.

Informed consent

Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

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Turusheva, A., Frolova, E., Hegendoerfer, E. et al. Predictors of short-term mortality, cognitive and physical decline in older adults in northwest Russia: a population-based prospective cohort study. Aging Clin Exp Res 29, 665–673 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-016-0613-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-016-0613-7

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