Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

On the variation of b-value for Karachi region, Pakistan through Gumbel’s extreme distribution method

  • Published:
Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The accurate estimation of b-value of Gutenberg–Richter (GR) frequency-magnitude relationship is very crucial in seismic hazard analysis of a region. In this study, we focused on the b-value estimated by using Gumbel’s extreme distribution and GR methods for Karachi region of Pakistan. The seismotectonic setting of Karachi region is of great significant because it is surrounded by many active faults systems such as Makran subduction, Run of Kutch, Kirthar, Pab fault etc. In the past, low to moderate seismicity has been occurred in Karachi region. However, because of its seismotectonic settings there is the possibility of occurrence of major seismic event. The probability of recurrence of potential earthquake is also investigated in Karachi region. An earthquake catalogue is developed by taking moment magnitude (M w ) as a homogenous magnitude for all events. The completeness of this catalogue is done through taking instrumental data of earthquakes from 1973 onwards. A total of 530 events, occurred in 300 km surrounding of Karachi city, are selected for analysis of b-value and probability of recurrence. The regression analysis is carried out by GR-relationship to analyze the pattern of earthquake distribution and b-value. The statistical analysis of past earthquakes has computed b-value 0.49 showing inadequate earthquake events. Therefore, to find out b-value for this region with low number of earthquake, lack of data and deficiency of relevant earthquake magnitude, GR methodology is not much appropriate. In this situation, Gumbel’s extreme distribution methodology is used, which have shown better results. The regression analysis through Gumbel’s method indicates b-value of 0.8. The probability of recurrence and return periods for different magnitudes is determined by using Gumbel’s extreme distribution value approach.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abercrombie RE (1996) The magnitude-frequency distribution earthquakes recorded with deep seismometers at Cajon Pass, Southern California. Tectonophysics 261:1–7

  • Adnan A, Hendriyawan H, Marto A, Irsyam M (2005) Seismic hazard assessment for peninsular Malaysia using Gumbel distribution method. J Teknol 42:57–73

  • Baker WE (1846) Remarks on the Allah Bund and on the drainage of the eastern part of the Sind basin. Trans Bombay Geogr Soc 7:186–188

    Google Scholar 

  • Betbeder-Matibet J (2008) Seismic engineering. John Wiley & Sons Inc, Hoboken

  • Bilham R (1998) Slip parameters for the Rann of Kachchh, 16 June 1819 earthquakes, quantified from historical accounts. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 146:295–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilham R (2007) Seismic hazard in Karachi, uncertain past, uncertain future. Seismol Res Lett 78(6):601–613

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Byrne DE, Sykes LR, Davis DM (1992) Great thrust earthquakes and aseismic slip along the plate boundary of the Makran subduction zone. J Geophys Res 97:449–478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen P, Bai T, Li B (2003) The b-value and earthquake occurrence period. Chin J Geophys 46(4):736–749

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gumbel EJ (1958) Statistics of extremes. Columbia University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1956) Earthquake magnitude, intensity, energy and accelaration. Bull Seismol Soc Am 32(3):163–191

    Google Scholar 

  • Khalid P, Ghazi S, Yasin Q, Khurrem S (2014) Assessment of seismic hazard of the Kalam-Ashrit Dam, Swat, Pakistan. 3rd Annual international conference on geological and earth sciences (GEOEARTH 2014), Singapore, 22–23 Sept 2104

  • Oldham TA (1883) Catalogue of Indian earthquakes. Geol Surv India Memoir 19:163–215

  • Schelling DD (1999) Frontal structural geometries and detachment tectonics of the northeastern Karachi arc, southern Kirthar range, Pakistan. Geol Soc Am Bull 328:287–302

    Google Scholar 

  • Scordilis EM (2006) Empirical global relations converting M S and m b to moment magnitude. J Seismol 10:225–236

  • Tezcan SS (1996) Probability analysis of earthquake magnitudes. Turkish Earthquake Foundation, Istanbul, p 26

    Google Scholar 

  • Tinti S, Rimondi R, Mulargia F (1987) On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs. Pure Appl Geophys 125:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA), Islamabad, Pakistan

    Naseer Ahmed

  2. Institute of Geology, University of the Punjab, Lahore, 54590, Pakistan

    Shahid Ghazi & Perveiz Khalid

Authors
  1. Naseer Ahmed
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Shahid Ghazi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Perveiz Khalid
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Perveiz Khalid.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ahmed, N., Ghazi, S. & Khalid, P. On the variation of b-value for Karachi region, Pakistan through Gumbel’s extreme distribution method. Acta Geod Geophys 51, 227–235 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-015-0122-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-015-0122-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation