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Native Out-Migration and Neighborhood Immigration in New Destinations

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Demography

Abstract

Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics linked to three decades of census data on immigrant settlement patterns, this study examines how the migration behaviors of native-born whites and blacks are related to local immigrant concentrations, and how this relationship varies across traditional and nontraditional metropolitan gateways. Our results indicate that regardless of gateway type, the likelihood of neighborhood out-migration among natives increases as the local immigrant population grows—an association that is not explained by sociodemographic characteristics of householders or by features of the neighborhoods and metropolitan areas in which they reside. Most importantly, we find that this tendency to move away from immigrants is pronounced for natives living in metropolitan areas that are developing into a major gateway—that is, a community that has experienced rapid recent growth in foreign-born populations. We also demonstrate that among mobile natives, the neighborhoods that they move to have substantially smaller immigrant concentrations than the ones they left, a finding that is especially evident in new gateway areas.

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Notes

  1. Although the PSID was designed to be nationally representative of the U.S. population in 1968, the sample has maintained close correspondence with characteristics of the U.S. population (see Duffy and Sastry 2012), and supplemental analyses indicate that the geographic distribution of our analytic sample closely matches the distribution observed in census data between 1980 and 2009.

  2. Models restricted to households remaining in the same metropolitan area between interviews yield results that are substantively and statistically similar to those presented here.

  3. We also tested for associations with recent changes in local immigrant populations. We found that in models including both percentage immigrant and change in percentage immigrant over the last five years, immigrant change had a comparatively small association with out-migration, and its inclusion does not alter the results in a meaningful way.

  4. We considered several alternative ways of defining gateways, including approaches that relax or stiffen requirements to be considered an established, new, or developing gateway. The results from these specifications are substantively consistent with those shown here. Our employed typology has the added benefit of approximating the midpoints of the range of coefficients on key variables and produces a classification of metropolitan areas that is consistent with Singer’s (2005) typology.

  5. Racial/ethnic entropy is defined, for each tract, as \( E={\displaystyle \sum_{r=1}^R}{p}_r \ln \left(\frac{1}{p_r}\right) \), where p r refers to the proportion of group r in the tract. High values of E refer to tracts where the distribution of racial groups is relatively uniform. Unfortunately, tract data on the race or birth country of immigrant populations are not available for our entire study period. We did, however, consider (in supplemental analyses) the percentage of the tract that is ethnic Mexican, and found weak associations with native out-migration, suggesting that our observed associations do not simply reflect out-migration from local Mexican populations.

  6. Characteristics of householders’ tracts of residence are treated as a Level 1 characteristic because there is too little clustering of PSID respondents within census tracts to warrant an additional level.

  7. The correlations between neighborhood percentage immigrant and gateway types are all moderate to weak (under |.50|), reflecting the fact that there is substantial heterogeneity in neighborhood immigrant concentrations within gateway types.

  8. Although the marginal effect of tract percentage immigrant in new gateways is small and nonsignifcant, the logit models indicate that for both blacks and whites, the effect is not significantly different from that in established gateways.

  9. Racially pooled models with two- and three-way interactions indicate that the link between immigrant concentrations in origin and destination tracts varies significantly by race (p = .005), and differences in the association across different gateway types also vary significantly by race.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Sam Friedman, Jacob Hibel, John Iceland, Bob Kaestner, Maria Krysan, Barry Lee, Dan Lichter, Giovanni Peri, Emily Rosenbaum, Jeff Timberlake, and Stew Tolnay for comments on earlier versions of this article and to Brian Stults for generous support with the Longitudinal Tract Data Base. This research was supported by infrastructure grants to the Cornell University Cornell Population Center (R24 HD058488) and to the University of Washington Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology (R24 HD042828) by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

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  1. Department of Policy Analysis and Management and Cornell Population Center, Cornell University, 295 MVR Hall, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA

    Matthew Hall

  2. Department of Sociology and Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Kyle Crowder

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Correspondence to Matthew Hall.

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Hall, M., Crowder, K. Native Out-Migration and Neighborhood Immigration in New Destinations. Demography 51, 2179–2202 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0350-5

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