Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The joint impact of fertility and unemployment on the level of state-aided pensions

  • Original Research Paper
  • Published:
European Actuarial Journal Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Within the framework of Markov chains we study the joint impact of fertility and unemployment on the level of Riester annuities in the German market. Using raw data of the Federal Statistical Office and the National Employment Agency, we allow for dependencies between the two risk factors. For predefined scenarios we calculate the expected value and the standard deviation of the Riester annuities. We thereby aim at enhancing individual advice of policy holders focusing on customer needs.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The Federal Statistical Office collects the numbers of live births by birth order and age of the mother no earlier than 2009; the statistics for 2011 are still not published at calculation date.

  2. For women between 60 and 64 we observe a quota of 0.35 % whereas the quota for the age between 55 and 59 is 2.9 %.

  3. The data are extracted from the German employment agency [1], where the period of long-term unemployment is defined as 2 years or more.

  4. For the age of 25, which, in any case, is smaller than the average age at birth of the last child, the age of the youngest child is arbitrarily fixed at 2.

  5. We use Table 3 and \(E\left( R|S_1\right) =58.57\).

References

  1. Arbeit B für (ed) (2003) Arbeitsmarkt in Zahlen: Strukturanalyse–Bestand an Langzeitarbeitslosen. http://www.pub.arbeitsagentur.de/hst/services/statistik/200312/iiia4/st4-langd.pdf. Accessed 8 March 2015

  2. Biagini F, Groll A, Widenmann J (2013) Intensity-based premium evalution for unemployment insurance products. Insur Math Econ 53(1):302–316

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. Dickson DCM, Hardy MR, Waters HR (2013) Actuarial mathematics for life contingent risks, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Gesamtverband der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (2012) Verhaltenskodex Vertrieb. http://www.gdv.de/2015/04/verhaltenskodex-fuer-den-vertrieb. Accessed 3 August 2015

  5. Haberman S, Pitacco E (1999) Actuarial models for disability insurance. Chapman & Hall, Coca Raton London

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  6. Henriksen L, Nielsen J, Steffensen M, Svensson C (2014) Markov chain modeling of policyholder behavior in life insurance and pension. Eur Actuar J 4(1):1–29

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  7. Feichtinger G (1973) Bevölkerungsstatistik. De Gruyter, Berlin

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Hoem JM (1969) Markov chain models in life insurance. Blätter DGVM 9:91–107

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Hoem JM (1970) Probabilistic fertility models of the life table type. Theor Popul Biol 1:12–38

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Keyfitz N (1971) On the momentum of population growth. Demography 8:71–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Keyfitz N, Caswell H (2005) Applied mathematical demography, 3rd edn. Springer, New York

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. Koller M (2012) Stochastic models in life insurance. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Mackenroth G (1953) Bevölkerungslehre: Theorie, Soziologie und Statistik der Bevölkerung. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg

    Book  Google Scholar 

  14. Smith DL, Keyfitz N (2013) Mathematical demography. Springer, Heidelberg

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  15. Statistisches Bundesamt (2012) Bevölkerung: Deutschland, Stichtag, Altersjahre, Geschlecht. Tabelle 12411-0006. http://destatis.de/genesis/online. Accessed 8 March 2015

  16. Statistisches Bundesamt (2011) Tabellenanhang (erweitert): Neue Daten zur Kinderlosigkeit in Deutschland (XLS). Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus 2008. Tabellen Geburten und Kinderlosigkeit. http://destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesellschaftStaat/Bevoelkerung/Geburten/Geburten. Accessed 8 March 2015

  17. Statistisches Bundesamt (2012) Durchschnittliches Alter der Mutter bei der Geburt: Deutschland, Jahre, Lebendgeburtenfolge, Jahr 2010. Tabelle 12612-0012. http://destatis.de/genesis/online. Accessed 8 March 2015

  18. Statistisches Bundesamt (2012) Vier bis fünf Jahre beträgt aktuell der Abstand von Geschwistern. Pressemitteilung Nr. 005. http://destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2012/01/PD12_005_12641. Accessed 8 March 2015

  19. Wagner F (2011) Gabler Versicherungslexikon. Springer, Wiesbaden

    Book  Google Scholar 

  20. Zhao Z, Guo B (2012) An algorithm for determination of age-specific fertility rate from initial age structure and total population. J Syst Sci Complex 25:833–844

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Zurich Gruppe Deutschland, Poppelsdorfer Allee 25, 53115, Bonn, Germany

    Sara Steil & Detlev Kobus

  2. Hochschule Koblenz, Joseph-Rovan-Allee 2, 53424, Remagen, Germany

    Jochen Wolf

Authors
  1. Sara Steil
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Detlev Kobus
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jochen Wolf
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sara Steil.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Steil, S., Kobus, D. & Wolf, J. The joint impact of fertility and unemployment on the level of state-aided pensions. Eur. Actuar. J. 6, 97–111 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-015-0120-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-015-0120-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation