Abstract
Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/ international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.
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Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007).
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Yan, Z., Han, J., Jiao, M. et al. Formation of an interactive user-oriented forecasting system: Experience from hydrological application in Linyi, Eastern China. Acta Meteorol Sin 26, 13–25 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-012-0102-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-012-0102-7