Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Probable maximum precipitation and flood calculations for Jeddah area, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

  • Thematic Issue
  • Published:
Environmental Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) methods help to define extreme rainfall and discharge magnitudes for dam and reservoir planning and design aims. In this paper, probabilistic and statistical calculation approaches are presented for physically meaningful PMP amounts from 12 meteorology station annual daily maximum rainfall values in and around the Jeddah City, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The climate change impact is considered as 15% for future projections. The results show that the values range between 62.1 and 244.0 mm, but the climate change impact calculations vary between 71.4 and 280.6 mm. These values are used to generate regional PMP contour maps for PMF calculations, and hence, possible flood danger on Jeddah City is assessed with the support of meaningful graphs and maps. Finally, in order to appreciate how close are the calculated PMP values to the recorded maximum daily rainfall amounts, an efficiency factor is defined as the ratio of the maximum daily rainfall to the calculated past and climate effective PMPs. The frequency factor is found to vary between 2.7 and 6.6, which are rather low compared to humid parts of the world, but in good agreement in many arid and semiarid region values.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Al Sarmi S, Washington R (2013) Changes in climate extremes in the Arabian Peninsula: analysis of daily data. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3772

  • Al Saud M (2010) Assessment of Flood Hazard of Jeddah Area 2009, Saudi Arabia. J Water Resour Prot 2:839–847

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almazroui M (2013) Simulation of present and future climate of Saudi Arabia using a regional climate model (PRECIS). Int J Clim 33:2247–2259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barros AP, Lettenmaier DP (1994) Dynamic modeling of orographically-induced precipitation. Rev Geophys 32:265–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BOM (Bureau of Meteorology) (1994) The estimation of PMP in Australia: generalized short-duration method (GSDM). Australian Government, Bulletin 53, Canberra

  • Casas MC, Rodríguez R, Prohom M, Gázquez A, Redaño A (2011) Estimation of the probabilistic maximum precipitation in Barcelona (Spain). Int J Clkimatol 31:1322–1327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collier CG, Hardaker PJ (1996) Estimating probable maximum precipitation using a storm model approach. J Hydrol 183:277–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corrigan P, Fenn DD, Kluck DR, Vogel JL (1999) Probable maximum precipitation for California. Hydrometeorological Report No. 59. Silver Spring

  • De Vries AJ, Tyrlis E, Edry D, Krichak SO, Steil B, Lelieveld J (2013) Extreme precipitation events in the Middle East: dynamics of the Active Red Sea Trough. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:7087–7108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Desa M, Noriah AB, Rakhecha PR (2001) Probable maximum precipitation for 24-hr duration over Southeast Asian monsoon region—Selangor, Malaysia. Atmos Res 58(1):41–54. doi:10.1016/S0169-8095(01)00070-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ellen MD, Ana PB (2003) Probable maximum precipitation estimation using multifractals: application in the Eastern United States. Am Meteorol Soc J Hydromet 4:1012–1024

    Google Scholar 

  • Fattahi E, Noorian AM, Noohi K (2010) Comparison of physical and statistical methods for estimating probable maximum precipitation in southwestern basins of Iran. DESERT 15:127–132

    Google Scholar 

  • Foufoula-Georgiou E (1989) A probabilistic storm transposition approach for estimating exceedence probabilities of extreme precipitation depths. Water Resour Res 25:799–815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghahraman B (2008) The estimation of one day duration probable maximum precipitation over Atrak watershed in Iran. Iran J Sci Technol Trans B Eng 32:175–179

    Google Scholar 

  • Graham WJ (2000) Should dams be modified for the probable maximum flood? J Am Water Resour Assoc 36:953–963

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen EM, Schreiner LC, Miller JF (1982) Application of probable maximum precipitation estimates, United States east of the 105th meridian. Hydro-meteorological report 52. National Weather Service, Silver Spring

  • Hershfield DM (1961) Estimating the probable maximum precipitation. J Hydraul Div Am Soc Civ Eng 87:99–106

    Google Scholar 

  • Hershfield DM (1965) Method for estimating probable maximum precipitation. J Am Water Works Assoc 57:965–972

    Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D (1999) A probabilistic view of Hershfield’s method for estimating probable maximum precipitation. Water Resour Res 35:1313–1322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (NRC) (1994) Estimating bounds on extreme precipitation events. National Academy Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Papalexiou SM, Koutsoyiannis D (2006) A probabilistic approach to the concept of probable maximum precipitation. Adv Geosci EGU 7:51–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rakhecha PR, Clark C (2002) Areal PMP distribution of one day to three-day duration over India. Meteorol Appl 9:399–406. doi:10.1017/S1350482702004024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z (2005) The Saudi Geological Survey hydrograph method for use in arid regions. Technical Report, SGS-TR-2004-5. SGS, Jeddah

  • Şen Z (2008) Wadi hydrology. CRC Publishers, Taylor and Francis Group, Baco Raton, p 385

    Google Scholar 

  • Şen Z, Al Alsheikh AA, Al-Dakheel AM, Alamoud AI, Alhamid AA, El-Sebaay AS (2011) Climate change and Water Harvesting possibilities in arid regions. Int J Global Warm 3(4):355–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sherif M, Almulla M, Shetty A, Chowdary RK (2013) Analysis of rainfall, PMP and drought in the United Arab Emirates. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3768

  • Snyder FF (1938) Synthetic unit hydrographs. Trans AGU 19:447–454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Subyani MA (2011) Hydrologic behavior and flood probability for selected arid basins in Makkah area, western Saudi Arabia. Arab J Geosci 4:817–824

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svensson C, Rakhecha PR (1998) Estimation of probable maximum precipitation for dams in the Hongru River catchment, China. Theor Appl Clim 59:79–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang BHM (1984) Estimation of probable maximum precipitation: case studies. J Hydraul Eng 110:1457–1472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WMO (World Meteorological Organization) (1986) Manual for estimation of probable maximum precipitation. Operational hydrology, Report1. WMO-No. 332, p 269

  • WMO (World Meteorological Organization) (2009) Manual for estimation of probable maximum precipitation. WMO No. 1045, Geneva

  • Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Melkonyan H, Tagiyeva U, Ahmed N et al (2005) Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi:10.1029/2005JD006181

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Arid Lands, Meteorology and Agriculture, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Zekai Şen

  2. Saudi Geological Survey, P.O. Box 54141, Jeddah, 21514, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Saleh As-Sefry & Saad Al-Harithy

  3. Civil Engineering Faculty, Istanbul Technical University, 34469, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

    Zekai Şen

Authors
  1. Zekai Şen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Saleh As-Sefry
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Saad Al-Harithy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Zekai Şen or Saad Al-Harithy.

Additional information

This article is a part of a Topical Collection, “Environmental Geology in Saudi Arabia”; edited by Zhou Wanfang and Olaf Kolditz.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Şen, Z., As-Sefry, S. & Al-Harithy, S. Probable maximum precipitation and flood calculations for Jeddah area, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Environ Earth Sci 76, 5 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6312-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6312-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation