Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment of GCM performances for the Arabian Peninsula, Brazil, and Ukraine and indications of regional climate change

  • Thematic Issue
  • Published:
Environmental Earth Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study presents an assessment of global climate model (GCM) performances for the regions Arabian Peninsula, Brazil and Ukraine, all facing problems related to water availability as well as quality and so are the focus regions for investigations within the Integrated Water Resources Management Project ‘International Water Research Alliance Saxony’. Results from the model performance assessment have been applied to derive estimates of the future climate in the regions by means of ensemble averaging. The study uses GCM data from the third Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Model performances were assessed by the Model Performance Index (MPI) as well as Taylor diagrams applying different reference data sets like reanalysis data as well as observational data sets. The model performances were analysed for different domain sizes. Climate variables of different tropospheric levels were classified by applying projections of the overall model ensemble as well as projections of a subset of models (selected according to the MPI) in variables with different levels of certainty of change. The MPI as well as the reliability ensemble averaging method were employed to calculate ensemble averages for variables with high certainties of change. Results are presented for mean values within the time periods 2040–2060 an 2080–2100. Applying different data sets as reference data shows that model performance crucially depends on the reference data set. The size of the model domain is of minor importance. Model rankings vary between regions. Certain changes are found for temperatures and geopotential heights in all levels but, e.g., not for precipitation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by funding from the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) in the framework of the project ‘IWAS—International Water Research Alliance Saxony’ (Grant 02WM1028). NCEP Reanalysis data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. ERA40 data have been provided by the ECMWF (http://data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/era40_moda/). The GPCP SG combined precipitation data were developed and computed at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center’s Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory—Atmospheres as a contribution to the GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project. CRU data have been made available by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. PRECL and CMAP precipitation data have been provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. We thank Prof. Klaus Arpe and an anonymous reviewer for suggestions improving this article markedly.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technical University of Dresden, Pienner Str. 23, 01737, Tharandt, Germany

    Klemens Barfus & Christian Bernhofer

Authors
  1. Klemens Barfus
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christian Bernhofer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Klemens Barfus.

Appendix

Appendix

See Table 2.

Table 2 Global climate models with resolution, applied runs from SRES scenarios and references
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Barfus, K., Bernhofer, C. Assessment of GCM performances for the Arabian Peninsula, Brazil, and Ukraine and indications of regional climate change. Environ Earth Sci 72, 4689–4703 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3147-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3147-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation