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Strategische Krisenfrüherkennung – Instrumente, Möglichkeiten und Grenzen

Strategic Crisis Detection: Instruments, Possibilities and Limits

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Zusammenfassung

Der Beitrag gibt einen Einblick in die Prozesse und Instrumente der strategischen Krisenfrüherkennung wie sie heute von nationalstaatlichen, internationalen und nicht staatlichen Akteuren genutzt werden. Es wird gezeigt, warum technische Risikoanalysen nicht ausreichen, um potentielle Krisen rechtzeitig zu identifizieren und welchen Mehrwert demgegenüber integrative und zukunftsorientierte Ansätze bieten können. Zugleich beleuchtet der Beitrag die Herausforderungen und Grenzen der strategischen Krisenfrüherkennung und diskutiert mögliche Lösungsansätze.

Abstract

The article provides an introduction into the processes and instruments of strategic early crisis detection as they are currently being used by national, international and non-state actors alike. It is shown why technical risk analyses are not sufficient for identifying potential crises and to what extent integrative and future-oriented approaches can offer an added value in this context. Moreover, the article examines the challenges and limits of strategic early crisis detection and discusses possible solutions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich, Haldeneggsteig 4, 8092, Zürich, Schweiz

    Florian Roth & Michel Herzog

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  1. Florian Roth
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  2. Michel Herzog
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Correspondence to Florian Roth or Michel Herzog.

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Roth, F., Herzog, M. Strategische Krisenfrüherkennung – Instrumente, Möglichkeiten und Grenzen. Z Außen Sicherheitspolit 9, 201–211 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12399-016-0556-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12399-016-0556-2

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