Abstract
Europe is currently under pressure from both the economy and demography. Six years after the onset of the global financial crisis, there are still no signs of a strong recovery. Moreover, demographic shifts have affected the size and structure of the European population, which is the fastest ageing in the world. These trends are inexorable and will be very hard to break unless major changes take place in the mentality of both policymakers and society at large. This article explains how the mixture of these adverse economic and demographic prospects puts the whole continent at high risk and will undermine its economic and political influence in the years to come.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Population doubling time corresponds to the number of years required for the total population to double in size if the annual rate of population change is kept constant.
Replacement fertility is the minimum average number of children per woman required to ensure that a generation replaces itself in size. This number is conditioned by mortality rates (especially at young ages) as well as the sex ratio at birth. Currently, at a global level, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is used as a rough approximation of replacement fertility.
Things might be even worse if this was not the case. Declining mortality coupled with steadily high fertility would have led to uncontrollable population growth rates.
This mostly applies to areas of low population density where demand for transportation, medical care, emergency services and leisure activities will be hard to justify under strictly financial criteria.
Current experience shows that in times of political and social tension, such as that currently being experienced by countries in North Africa and the Middle East, ‘controlled’ or ‘selected’ migration is more wishful thinking than an actual policy option. It goes without saying that additional measures, along with all the necessary resources, should be taken to address the highly acute issue of illegal border crossings.
This goal could be attained through improvement of the link between education and the labour market, the development of a knowledge-based society, and/or life-long training.
Mostly by increasing participation rates among inactive women and younger retirees, as well as those who are unemployed.
References
Alonso, F. G. (2009). Can the rising pension burden in Europe be mitigated by immigration? Modelling the effects of selected demographic and socioeconomic factors on ageing in the European Union, 2008–2050. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2009, 123–147.
Bagavos, C., & Tragaki, A. (2011). Demographic ageing in the EU and the impact on labour-employment prospects and pensions. Social Cohesion and Development, 6(2), 89–101.
Bermingham, J. (2001). Immigration: Not a solution to problems of population decline and aging. Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 22(4), 355–363.
Bloom, D., & Canning, D. (2004). Global demographic change: Dimensions and economic significance. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 10817. www.nber.org/papers/w10817.pdf. Accessed 8 October 2014.
Börsch-Supan, A., & Ludwig, A. (2011). Old Europe ages: Reforms and reform backlashes. In J. B. Shoven (Ed.), Demography and the economy (pp. 169–204). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
Burniaux, J., Duval, R., & Jaumotte, F. (2004). Coping with ageing: A dynamic approach to quantify the impact of alternative policy options on future labour supply in OECD countries. OECD Economics Department Working Paper no. 371. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Eberstadt, N., & Groth, H. (2007). Europe’s coming demographic challenge: Unlocking the value of health. Washington, DC: The A.E.I. Press.
Lutz, W., O’Neil, B. C., & Scherbov, S. (2003). Europe’s population at a turning point. Science, 299(5615), 1991–1992.
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (Eds.). (2004). The end of world population growth in the 21st century. London: Earthscan.
UN. (2001). Replacement migration: Is it a solution to declining and ageing populations? Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN Secretariat.
UN. (2013). World population prospects: The 2012 revision. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
Van de Kaa, D. (1987). Europe’s second demographic transition. Population Bulletin, 42(1), 1–59.
Wilson, C., & Pison, G. (2004). More than half of the global population lives where fertility is below replacement level. Population & Societies, 405, 1–4.
Zaidi, A. (2008). Future challenges of population ageing: The European perspective. European Centre for Social Policy and Welfare Research Policy Brief, March.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
About this article
Cite this article
Tragaki, A. Demographics: the vulnerable heel of the European Achilles. European View 13, 277–285 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12290-014-0317-3
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12290-014-0317-3