Demographic, economic and geopolitical issues of the Mediterranean area

Abstract

The Mediterranean Sea was once an element of wealth and cultural and economic exchange, while today it has become an element of closure, a natural border, especially to people migrations. Considering the macro processes in action, we consider that the whole region should have the chance to flourish again. The global demographic centre of gravity is moving southward, with African population that will double from the current one billion to two billion by 2050. In the Mediterranean basin, the old demographic ratios are bound to reverse in favour of Northern Africa countries, which will double in number the European shore. Along with the population, also the global workforce is expected to explode: in Africa alone it will be necessary to create about 725 million new jobs in the next 40 years to absorb the additional labour supply due to demographic factors. This will create a huge migration pressure towards Europe. Also the economic centre of gravity shifts southward. Production is moving where work is more available and cheaper, thus emerging countries attract investment and in perspective will generate two-thirds of global GDP growth. Together with international competition, technological change may put further pressure over world labour markets. These processes will need a renewed global governance. The paper proposes a shift toward a regionalized global governance, and the institution of a Mediterranean Union of 54 countries, able to provide both shores of the sea a significant role in the international arena and foster their economic development.