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Population Sustainability in Rural Communities: the Case of Two British National Parks

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Abstract

This paper uses projections of population and housing to explore issues of population sustainability in the Cairngorms and Peak District National Parks. The projections demonstrate that if recent trends of births, deaths and migration continue both National Parks will not be sustainable as the younger profile of out-migration relative to in-migration causes populations to become increasingly elderly. Whilst these processes of demographic change are common to many rural areas we demonstrate that the effects of migration and associated population ageing are more extreme within the National Parks than in surrounding areas. Further projection scenarios show that the number of new houses required to prevent the decline in the working age population is politically unfeasible. Policies that aim to change the migration age pattern and to cater for the needs of the elderly population are essential if the sustainability and vibrancy of local communities are to be maintained.

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Notes

  1. PDNP (and CNP) full reports available at http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/ForecastAreas.htm.

  2. Since this work was completed, the Office for National Statistics provides population and migration estimates for small areas within England, which could be used to supplement the census record of migration as in Scotland. To this extent the CNP projections in this paper are of better quality than those for the PDNP.

  3. Report available at http://www.peakdistrict.gov.uk/populationprojections.pdf.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to Fiona Munro and the CNP staff, Andy Cooper and the PDNP staff, Richard Cooper of Nottinghamshire County Council, for their support and comments, and to Nissa Finney for comments on earlier drafts of this paper. We are also grateful to the two anonymous referees whose comments have improved this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Kantorovich Building, Humanities Bridgeford Street, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

    Alan Marshall & Ludi Simpson

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  1. Alan Marshall
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  2. Ludi Simpson
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Correspondence to Alan Marshall.

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Marshall, A., Simpson, L. Population Sustainability in Rural Communities: the Case of Two British National Parks. Appl. Spatial Analysis 2, 107–127 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-008-9017-1

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