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Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season

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Abstract

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index – RI), is positively and significantly correlated (r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984–2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993–2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993–2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Dr S W A Naqvi, Director, CSIR–NIO, Goa and Dr V S N Murty, Scientist-in-Charge, CSIR–NIO Regional Centre, Visakhapatnam, for the support and encouragement. Senior author, Y Sadhuram would like to thank CSIR, New Delhi, for providing the Emeritus Scientist scheme. Thanks to the project teams of NOAA, IITM and IMD for making the datasets available on their websites. The authors would like to thank both the reviewers for their valuable suggestions which helped to improve the original version of the manuscript. NIO contribution number 5918.

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  1. CSIR–National Institute of Oceanography, 176, Lawsons Bay Colony, Visakhapatnam, 530 017, India

    Y SADHURAM & K MANEESHA

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  1. Y SADHURAM
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  2. K MANEESHA
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Correspondence to Y SADHURAM.

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Corresponding editor: A K Sahai

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SADHURAM, Y., MANEESHA, K. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season. J Earth Syst Sci 125, 1473–1479 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0734-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0734-6

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