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A Multidimensional Approach to Ascertaining Individual Differentiation and Consistency in Serial Sexual Assault: Is It Time to Redefine and Refine?

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Abstract

Whilst investigative use of behavioural evidence to help link and solve serial offences has long been in use, the empirical and theoretical grounds for whether and how to use this evidence effectively have begun to emerge only in recent decades. The present study empirically tested (a) the potential for effectively differentiating between rape offence crime scenes using quantitative and qualitative distinctions within the behavioural dimensions of control, violence, and sexual activity, and (b) the extent to which redefining behavioural consistency more broadly to include dynamic trajectories of behavioural change may be more effective than limiting this definition to behavioural stability. Results confirmed that sexual offences can be successfully differentiated based on the specific degree and subtype of these behavioural dimensions present in each crime scene. The analysis of consistency and behavioural trajectories showed that whilst none of the offenders exhibited complete consistency across behavioural dimensions, a subsample of offenders remained fully consistent in at least one. Furthermore, of those who were not consistent, the vast majority followed an identifiable trajectory of change. Findings are discussed in the context of psychological theories of behavioural consistency as well as practical aspects of advancing the utility of behavioural linkage.

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Notes

  1. Bateman and Salfati 2007; Bennell and Canter 2002; Bennell and Jones 2005; Bennell et al. 2009; Bouhana et al. 2014; Burrell et al. 2012, 2015; Canter et al. 1991; Deslauriers-Varin and Beauregard 2013; Ellingwood et al. 2013; Fox and Farrington 2014; Green et al. 1976; Grubin et al. 2001; Harbers et al. 2012; Hewitt and Beauregard 2014; Kearns et al. 2011; Leclerc et al. in press; Lussier et al. (2008); Markson et al. 2010; Melnyk et al. 2011; Salfati and Bateman 2005; Salfati et al. 2014; Salo et al. 2012; Santtila et al. 2004, 2005b 2008; Slater et al. 2015; Sorochinski and Salfati 2010; Tonkin & Woodhams 2015; Tonkin et al. 2008, 2011, 2012a, 2012b; Winter et al. 2013; Woodhams and Labuschagne 2011; Woodhams and Toye 2007; Woodhams et al. 2007a, 2008

  2. Canter (2000) and Salfati and Bateman (2005) outlined the underlying principle of offender profiling as the Actions to Characteristics (A → C) equation which states that an offender’s actions at the crime scene will have some similarity or correspondence to the offender’s characteristics (i.e. themselves outside of the criminal event in question), thus enabling the investigator to make assumptions about the identity of the offender based on the analysis of actions they engaged in at the crime scene. Identifying the salient corresponding features of actions to characteristics is the ultimate goal of profiling and is yet to be reached. In the case of serial crime, the equation is stated as A → A → A → C where the actions across all crime series should align to correspond to a set of offender characteristics.

  3. All cases included an offender who was convicted for the crimes in his series.

  4. Because the number of crimes per series varied from 3 to 15, the assumption of independence is likely to be violated when all crimes of a series are included in a classification analysis. To test whether disproportionate weighing of some series may have affected the model, an additional analysis was conducted with only 4 crimes per series. This analysis yielded the same differentiation pattern in all three behavioural dimensions, therefore, the analysis including the full dataset is presented below.

  5. Because the data for the present study were taken from the large existing dataset, specific inter-rater agreements on the subset used here are not available.

  6. Most of the elements that appear in Table 2 and that comprised each of the described dimensions represent a composite variable that was coded as present/absent based on whether at least one of multiple variables (listed in Table 2 below the main variables from the HPI-R. For example, physical control was coded as present if the offender engaged in gagging, blindfolding or binding the victim (or any combination of these variables).

  7. See Author Withheld (2015) for an ad-hoc discussion of the methodological and practical considerations in categorising the degree difference and using J-scores vs. number of specific elements to designate quantitative differences.

  8. We realise that this approach has limitations in that the numeric profiles were insufficient for the determination that the violence had been situational. However, because this study has been an exploratory attempt at devising the behavioural dimensions, we believe that it was appropriate. This limitation is further addressed in the discussion section.

  9. Of the 28 series that were included in the analysis of consistency in study 2, 18 included at least one failed sexual assault attempt (i.e. where the offender was unable to engage in any sexual activity behaviours) within the first four crimes in their series. Of those, eight series included one interrupted attempt in their first four crimes, nine series had two interrupted attempts and one series had three

  10. This was done in order to reduce the high number of idiosyncratic patterns that would result from cross-tabulating the three dimensions that each includes 8 to 9 possible trajectories in a fairly small sample of 28 series.

  11. The reported CI corresponds to 95% confidence intervals for proportions that were calculated using the bootstrap sampling method for 1000 samples. Given the small sample and large number of subgroups that were observed, confidence interval of upper and lower bounds vary substantially, suggesting that results should be interpreted with caution.

  12. Given the three possible outcomes presented here—consistency, trajectory or inconsistency—for three behavioural dimensions, there are 19/27 chances of having consistency in at least one of the dimensions.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their gratitude to the FBI's Behavioral Science Unit for coordinating access to the data used in this project. Authors’ opinions, statements and conclusions should not be considered an endorsement by the FBI for any policy, program or service.

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  1. Department of Psychology, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY, 524 West 59th Street, New York, NY, 10019, USA

    Marina Sorochinski

  2. John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY, New York, NY, USA

    C Gabrielle Salfati

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  1. Marina Sorochinski
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Correspondence to Marina Sorochinski.

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Funding

The project was funded by Award No. 2013-IJ-CX-0009, awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, US Department of Justice.

Ethical Statement

The data used in the reported studies were collected under Exempt IRB approval (JJ-07-183 Crime Scene Analysis: A John Jay College-FBI Collaborative Research Project). Because the data are archival, there was no informed consent requirement.

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This project was supported by Award No. 2013-IJ-CX-0009 and awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, US Department of Justice. The opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Justice.

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Sorochinski, M., Salfati, C.G. A Multidimensional Approach to Ascertaining Individual Differentiation and Consistency in Serial Sexual Assault: Is It Time to Redefine and Refine?. J Police Crim Psych 33, 63–83 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-017-9235-z

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