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Analyses on phenological and morphological variations of mangrove forests along the southwest coast of Bangladesh

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Abstract

Drastic changes in river discharge and salinity levels are threatening the phenology and morphology of the coastal mangrove forests of the Sundarbans of Bangladesh. We have used AVHRR GIMMS (1985–2006) and MODIS (2005–2010) satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to identify the temporal variation of the phenology of the mangroves. Linear interpolation and Fourier-based adjustment were applied to remove noise from the NDVI time series. Then linear regression analysis on a single area (8 km ✕ 8 km) and a composite of 36 areas for three NDVI statistics the annual minimum, annual average, and annual maximum were performed--over the time periods 1985–1990, 1990–2000, 2000–2006 and 2005–2010 to identify possible functional changes in NDVI time series around the Sundarbans. Furthermore, we used fourteen LANDSAT images spanning the period 1989–2010 to estimate the spatiotemporal rate of shoreline changes over the three time periods 1989–2000, 2000–2006, and 2006–2010. A decreasing trend in the annual minimum NDVI was observed in most of the areas of the Sundarbans for the period 1990–2000. During the years 2000–2006, the trends of the three NDVI statistics became significantly positive, indicating an improvement of the mangrove phenology. In the period 2005–2010, a decreasing trend in all the NDVI variables was again dominant. The coast underwent rapid erosion from 1989–2000 and 2006–2010. However, the rate substantially declined between 2000 and 2006, when accretion was dominant. The advent of the upstream Farakka barrage caused a significant reduction in the Ganges-Gorai River discharge and increased the salinity in and around the Sundarbans. Our study concludes that this may be responsible for the degradation of mangrove phenology and accelerated erosion in the earlier and recent periods. In the interim, 2000–2006, improved river discharge and salinity levels due to the Ganges water sharing agreement (1996) and dredging of the Gorai River bed (1998–1999) enhanced the mangrove phenology and helped the coast to gain land.

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Notes

  1. In the dry season, the rivers of the Sundarbans are fed by the Ganges, whereas in the wet season, the rivers are fed solely by local rainfall (IWM 2003). The annual average local rainfall is between 1640–2000 mm and decreases as one proceeds from the lower to the upper areas of the Ganges basin. The rainfall is strongly seasonal with 85 % falling in the wet season (Hoque et al. 2006).

  2. Under a temporary agreement signed in April 1975, Bangladesh consented to a “test operation” of the Farakka Barrage for 41 days. After expiry of the temporary agreement, India unilaterally withdrew water from June 1975 to November 1977. A five-year agreement on the sharing of the Ganges waters was signed in November 1977. The agreement expired in 1982, but was renewed twice with some modifications up to 1987 (Mirza 1998).

  3. Mamedov et al. (2001) investigated the effects of the wetting rate on slaking and dispersion by observing the infiltration rate and runoff in cultivated soils varying in clay content and ESP in laboratory experiments with simulated rain.

  4. A field survey was conducted in March 2013 to acquire an overview of the present conditions in segment D, such as the salinity and other soil characteristics and forest type. Soil samples from different locations in segment D were collected and examined by the Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (BCSIR) to assess their texture, ESP, electrical conductivity (EC), and PH.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, Tennodai 1-1-1, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan, 305-0006

    Md. Shibly Anwar & Satoshi Takewaka

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  1. Md. Shibly Anwar
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  2. Satoshi Takewaka
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Correspondence to Md. Shibly Anwar.

Appendix

Appendix

Fig. 18
figure 18

Comparison between annual average rainfall anomaly and annual average NDVI anomaly. Anomaly is the deviation of the annual average value for each year from the mean value over all the observation years. Periods of above mean over all observation year are shown as points above 0-line and periods of below mean over all observation are shown as points below 0-line. A high association of the rainfall with the annual average NDVI behavior was observed (Pearson’s correlation coefficient R = 0.42, N = 22, confidence level = 90–95 %). Rc equals the critical Pearson’s correlation value with a confidence level between 90 and 95 %. In the exceptional years when the fluctuations of the annual average NDVI and average annual rainfall anomaly have opposite behaviors, the NDVI variation may be affected by other factors, such as river discharge and cyclone damage

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Anwar, M.S., Takewaka, S. Analyses on phenological and morphological variations of mangrove forests along the southwest coast of Bangladesh. J Coast Conserv 18, 339–357 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-014-0321-4

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