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An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

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Abstract

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008–2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP (total factor productivity) scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined significantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Jiao Luo & Jinyan Zhan

  2. School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Yingzhi Lin

  3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Chunhong Zhao

  4. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Chunhong Zhao

  5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Chunhong Zhao

Authors
  1. Jiao Luo
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  2. Jinyan Zhan
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  3. Yingzhi Lin
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  4. Chunhong Zhao
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Correspondence to Jinyan Zhan.

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Luo, J., Zhan, J., Lin, Y. et al. An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China. Front. Earth Sci. (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-013-0425-z

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