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What lurks below the surface? Exploring the caveats of sea level rise economic impact assessments

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Abstract

This paper draws insights from multi-disciplinary research into sea level rise (SLR) in order to identify and critically evaluate the impact that assumptions underpinning SLR projections, damage assessment, and economic valuation have on the predictive accuracy of SLR economic impact assessments. The analysis demonstrates that economic models of SLR impact are, in the best case, guesstimates based on inexact data, and in the worst case, misleading works of politically infused fiction. In order to extract value from such studies and “speak truth to power”, it is essential that critical assumptions associated with data that goes into the construct of such models are transparently disclosed to allow users of such assessments to fully understand the limitations to the modeling exercise and the inherent risks that may undermine the verity of projected outcomes.

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Acknowledgments

The author wishes to thank Prof. Jesuthason Thampapillai of the National University of Singapore for much appreciated support in the development of this paper.

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Correspondence to Scott Victor Valentine.

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Handled by Mannava V. K. Sivakumar, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Switzerland.

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Valentine, S.V. What lurks below the surface? Exploring the caveats of sea level rise economic impact assessments. Sustain Sci 10, 139–147 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-014-0254-8

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