Article Special Topic: Climate Change over the Past Millennium in China

Chinese Science Bulletin

, Volume 56, Issue 28, pp 2986-2994

Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau

  • Yu LiuAffiliated withThe State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Environmental Science and Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University Email author 
  • , QiuFang CaiAffiliated withThe State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • , HuiMing SongAffiliated withThe State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesGraduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • , ZhiSheng AnAffiliated withThe State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • , Hans W. LinderholmAffiliated withRegional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg

Abstract

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities, causes and future trends of temperature variations based on tree rings for the past 2485 years on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature change occurred during the Eastern Jin Event (343–425 AD), and not in the late 20th century. There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2–3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity, which greatly affects the Earth surface temperature. The long-term trends (>1000 a) of temperature were controlled by the millennium-scale cycle, and amplitudes were dominated by multi-century cycles. Moreover, cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. The prediction indicated that the temperature will decrease in the future until to 2068 AD and then increase again.

Keywords

central-eastern Tibetan Plateau temperature amplitude rate periodicity cause future trend