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A general law of human mobility

探究人类移动行为背后的普遍动因

  • Research Paper
  • Special Focus on Intelligent City and Big Data
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Abstract

The intrinsic factors that drive human mobility have remained unclear for decades. Our observations from both intra-urban and inter-urban trips demonstrate a general law of human mobility. Specifically, the probability that a trip will occur is inversely proportional to the size of population located inside a circle with radius equal to the travel distance centered at the trip origin. A simple parameterless rank-based model is presented; this model can predict human flows with a convincing fidelity. Moreover, existing models can be implemented as special cases of our model, suggesting that our model is stable at more spatial scales. Our model also creates a fundamental bridge between individual mobility and social relationships.

创新点

近年来关于人类移动行为的研究不断出现, 但关于该行为背后的本质动因却并不明晰, 相关方向仍存在不少开放问题。本文通过分析城市内和城市间大量移动轨迹和调查数据发现, 人类在不同尺度空间移动时存在一个普适的规律, 即个体从某区域移动至另一区域的概率与这两个区域之间的人口规模成反比。基于该法则, 本文提出无参的基于人口排名的移动行为预测模型, 实现了不同空间尺度下移动流量的稳定预测。同时, 该模型也为如何将人类移动行为与社交行为关联并建模提供了新思路。

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Technology in Geo-spatial Information Processing and Application System, Institute of Electronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

    Xiao Liang

  2. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China

    JiChang Zhao

  3. State Key Laboratory of Software Development Environment, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China

    Ke Xu

Authors
  1. Xiao Liang
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  2. JiChang Zhao
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  3. Ke Xu
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Correspondence to JiChang Zhao.

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Liang, X., Zhao, J. & Xu, K. A general law of human mobility. Sci. China Inf. Sci. 58, 1–14 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-015-5402-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-015-5402-y

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