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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Roorkee, India

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Abstract

Intensification and frequency of hydrologic events are attributed to climate change and are expected to increase in coming future. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves quantify the extreme precipitation and are used extensively to assess the return periods of rainfall events. It is expected that climate change will modify the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. Thus a need of updating IDF curves arises under the climate change scenario. This paper aims at updating the IDF curves for a typical Indian town using an ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for all the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Sub-daily maximum intensities (15-, 30-, 45-, 60-, 120-, and 180 min) were obtained from the observed records. Equidistance quantile method was used to study the relationships between the historical and projected GCM data, and the historical GCM and observed sub-daily data. This relationship was used to obtain projected sub-daily intensities. The IDF curves were developed using observed and projected data. Analysis of the curves indicated increase in precipitation intensities for all the RCP scenarios. It was also found that intensities of all return periods increases with intensifying RCP scenarios. The variation in the intensities across the GCMs was attributed to the driving forces considered in a particular GCM.

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Abbreviations

AA:

Anthropogenic aerosols

Ant:

Anthropogenic forcing (a mixture that might include GHGS, aerosols, ozone, and land-use changes).

BC:

black carbon

Ds:

Dust

GHG:

well-mixed greenhouse gases

LU:

land-use change

MD:

mineral dust

Nat:

natural forcing (a combination, not explicitly defined here, that might include, for example, Sl and VL)

OC:

organic carbon

Oz:

(= TO + SO) ozone (= tropospheric and stratospheric ozone)

SA:

(= SD + SI) anthropogenic sulfate aerosol direct and indirect effects

SD:

anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, accounting only for direct effects

SI:

anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, accounting only for indirect effects

Sl:

solar irradiance

SO:

stratospheric ozone

SS:

sea salt

TO:

tropospheric ozone

Vl:

volcanic aerosols

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India

    Ronit Singh, D. S. Arya & A. K. Taxak

  2. UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands

    Z. Vojinovic

Authors
  1. Ronit Singh
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  2. D. S. Arya
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  3. A. K. Taxak
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  4. Z. Vojinovic
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Correspondence to D. S. Arya.

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Singh, R., Arya, D.S., Taxak, A.K. et al. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Roorkee, India. Water Resour Manage 30, 4603–4616 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1441-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1441-4

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