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A Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Forecasting Groundwater Levels near Lake Okeechobee, Florida

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Abstract

Accurate and reliable prediction of groundwater level is essential for water resource development and management. This study was carried out to test the validity of three nonlinear time-series intelligence models, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in the prediction of the groundwater level when taking the interaction between surface water and groundwater into consideration. These three models were developed and applied for two wells near Lake Okeechobee in Florida, United States. 10 years data-sets including hydrological parameters such as precipitation (P), temperature (T), past groundwater level (G) and lake level (L) were used as input data to forecast groundwater level. Five quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and Akaike information criteria (AIC), were employed to evaluate the performances of these models. The conclusions achieved from this research would be beneficial to the water resources management, it proved the necessity and effect of considering the surface water-groundwater interaction in the prediction of groundwater level. These three models were proved applicable to the prediction of groundwater level one, two and three months ahead for the area that is close to the surface water, for example, the lake area. The models using P, T, G and L achieved better prediction result than that using P, T and G only. At the same time, results from ANFIS and SVM models were more accurate than that from ANN model.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program (2011BAC12B00), Basic Research Foundation of Beijing University of Technology and China Scholarship Council. The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful and insightful comments of the editor and anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Beijing for Water Quality Science and Water Environment Recovery Engineering, College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China

    Yicheng Gong, Yongxiang Zhang & Shuangshuang Lan

  2. School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA

    Yicheng Gong

  3. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of Ministry of Education, Xi’an, 710054, China

    Shuangshuang Lan

  4. Department of Water Resource, China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Huan Wang

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  1. Yicheng Gong
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  2. Yongxiang Zhang
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  4. Huan Wang
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Correspondence to Yicheng Gong or Yongxiang Zhang.

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Gong, Y., Zhang, Y., Lan, S. et al. A Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Forecasting Groundwater Levels near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Water Resour Manage 30, 375–391 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1167-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1167-8

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