Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Simulated by HIMS Models in the Luanhe River Basin, North China

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper applied a HIMS (hydroinformatic modeling system) model to simulate streamflow in the Luanhe River Basin. This model was compared with SIMHYD and XAJ models for eight sub-basins of the Luanhe River. The results showed HIMS model performed better than SIMHYD and XAJ models, in these areas. We then investigated the streamflow response to climate changes in the different sub-basins. Twenty hypothetical climate change scenarios (perturbed temperatures and precipitation) were used to test the sensitivity of HIMS model simulated annual and mean monthly streamflow. Our results demonstrated that: (i) the annual streamflow was positively related to precipitation, and there was a negative relationship between streamflow and temperature for all the eight sub-basins; (ii) in all sub-basins, the relationship of annual streamflow change to precipitation change was highly non-linear, but the relationship of annual streamflow change with temperature change was approximately linear; (iii) the annual streamflow response to precipitation change was more sensitive when increasing than decreasing; (iv) the annual streamflow response to climate change was more sensitive in the Xingzhouhe River sub-basin, followed by the Wuliehe River sub-basin, and the Sahe River sub-basin was least sensitive; (iv) there were few differences in inner-streamflow response to climate change in the Laoniuhe, Yimatuhe, and Yixunhe Rivers. But for other rivers, when the temperature changed, larger streamflow differences happened in winter and summer; when the precipitation decreased or was unchanged, the larger differences happened in winter months, and when the precipitation increased, larger differences happened in winter and summer.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abdulla F, Eshtawi T, Assaf H (2009) Assessment of the impact of potential climate change on the water balance of a semi-arid watershed. Water Resour Manag 23(10):2051–2068

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arora VK (2001) Streamflow simulations for continental-scale river basins in a global atmospheric general circulation model. Adv Water Resour 24:775–791

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bao H, Zhao L, He Y, Li Z, Wetterhall F, Cloke H, Pappenberger F, Manful D (2011) Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast. Adv Geosci 29:61–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bao ZX, Zhang JY, Wang GQ, Fu GB, He RM, Yan XL, Jin JL, Liu YL, Zhang AJ (2012) Attribution for decreasing streamflow of the Haihe River basin, northern China: climate variability or human activities? J Hydrol 460–46:117–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bates B, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof J (2008) Climate change and water. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  • Chau KW (2007) A split-step particle swarm optimization algorithm in river stage forecasting. J Hydrol 346:131–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS (2006) Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia. Hydrol Sci J 51:613–625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, Peel MC, Western AW, Singh VP, Frevert D (2002) Application and testing of the simple rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD. Mathematical models of small watershed hydrology and applications, 335–367

  • Chu W, Gao X, Sorooshian S (2010) Improving the shuffled complex evolution scheme for optimization of complex nonlinear hydrological systems: application to the calibration of the Sacramento soil‐moisture accounting model. Water Resour Res 46(9):W09530. doi:10.1029/2010WR009224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dibike YB, Coulibaly P (2005) Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J Hydrol 307:145–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan Q, Sorooshian S, Gupta V (1992) Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall‐runoff models. Water Resour Res 28:1015–1031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan Q, Sorooshian S, Gupta VK (1994) Optimal use of the SCE-UA global optimization method for calibrating watershed models. J Hydrol 158:265–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dumedah G, Berg AA, Wineberg M, Collier R (2010) Selecting model parameter sets from a trade-off surface generated from the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II. Water Resour Manag 24:4469–4489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franchini M, Lamberti P (1994) A flood routing Muskingum type simulation and forecasting model based on level data alone. Water Resour Res 30(7):2183–2196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Füssel H-M, Klein RJ (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Chang 75:301–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill MK, Kaheil YH, Khalil A, McKee M, Bastidas L (2006) Multiobjective particle swarm optimization for parameter estimation in hydrology. Water Resour Res 42:W07417. doi:10.1029/2005WR004528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo S, Wang J, Xiong L, Ying A, Li D (2002) A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. J Hydrol 268:1–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo J, Zhou JZ, Zou Q, Liu Y, Song LX (2013) A novel multi-objective shuffled complex differential evolution algorithm with application to hydrological model parameter optimization. Water Resour Manag 27(8):2923–2946

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Third assessment report-climate change 2001. IPCC/WMO/UNEP

  • Jiang T, Chen YD, Xu C-Y, X. C, Chen X, Singh VP (2007) Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. J Hydrol 336:316–333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Y, Liu C, Huang C, Wu X (2010) Improved particle swarm algorithm for hydrological parameter optimization. Appl Math Comput 217:3207–3215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Y, Li X, Huang C (2013) Automatic calibration a hydrological model using a master–slave swarms shuffling evolution algorithm based on self-adaptive particle swarm optimization. Expert Syst Appl 40(2):752–757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang SH, Ren LL, Hong Y, Yang XL, Ma MW, Yuan F (2014) Improvement of multi-satellite real-time precipitation products for ensemble streamflow simulation in a middle latitude basin in south China. Water Resour Manag 28(8):2259–2278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph JF, Guillaume JHA (2013) Using a parallelized MCMC algorithm in R to identify appropriate likelihood functions for SWAT. Environ Model Softw 46:292–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaini P, Artita K, Nicklow JW (2012) Optimizing structural best management practices using SWAT and genetic algorithm to improve water quality goals. Water Resour Manag 26:1827–1845

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li JZ, Feng P (2009) Trend ananlysis of runoff generation characteristics of Luanhe River Basin. J Arid Land Resour Environ 23(8):79–85 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li H, Zhang Y, Chiew FHS, Xu S (2009) Predicting runoff in ungauged catchments by using Xinanjiang model with MODIS leaf area index. J Hydrol 370:155–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu CM, Wang GT (1980) The estimation of small-watershed peak flows in China. Water Resour Res 16(5):881–886

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu CM, Zheng HX, Wang ZG (2006) Distributed simulation of catchment water cycle. Yellow River Conservancy Press, Zhengzhou, China

  • Liu C, Wang Z, Zheng H, Zhang L, Wu X (2008) Development of hydro-informatic modelling system and its application. Sci China Ser Technol Sci 51:456–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu LL, Fischer T, Jiang T, Luo Y (2013) Comparison of uncertainties in projected flood frequency of the Zhujiang River, South China. Quatern Int 304:51–56

  • Lu E, Takle ES, Manoj J (2010) The relationships between climatic and hydrological changes in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A SWAT and multi-GCM study. J Hydrometeorol 11:437–451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mengistu D, Sorteberg A (2012) Sensitivity of SWAT simulated streamflow to climatic changes within the Eastern Nile River basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:391–407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merritt WS, Alila Y, Barton M, Taylor B, Cohen S, Neilsen D (2006) Hydrologic response to scenarios of climate change in sub watersheds of the Okanagan basin, British Columbia. J Hydrol 326:79–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller NL, Bashford KE, Strem E (2003) Potential impacts of climate change on California hydrology. J Am Water Resour Assoc 39:771–784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muzik I (2002) A first-order analysis of the climate change effect on flood frequencies in a subalpine watershed by means of a hydrological rainfall–runoff model. J Hydrol 267:65–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng D, Xu Z (2010) Simulating the Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Tarim River basin by using a modified semi‐distributed monthly water balance model. Hydrol Process 24:209–216

    Google Scholar 

  • Samadi S, Carbone GJ, Mahdavi M, Sharifi F, Bihamta MR (2013) Statistical downscaling of river runoff in a semi arid catchment. Water Resour Manag 27(1):117–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi Y, Liu H, Fan M, Huang J (2013) Parameter identification of RVM Runoff forecasting model based on improved particle swarm optimization, advances in swarm intelligence. Springer, pp. 160–167

  • Shin MJ, Guillaume JH, Croke BF, Jakeman AJ (2013) Addressing ten questions about conceptual rainfall–runoff models with global sensitivity analyses in R. J Hydrol 503:135–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh P, Arora M, Goel NK (2006) Effect of climate change on runoff of a glacierized Himalayan basin. Hydrol Process 20:1979–1992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Griensven A, Francos A, Bauwens W (2002) Sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration of an integral dynamic model for river water quality. Water Sci Technol 45:325–332

    Google Scholar 

  • Varis O, Kajander T, Lemmelä R (2004) Climate and water: from climate models to water resources management and vice versa. Clim Chang 66:321–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicuna S, Dracup J (2007) The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California. Clim Chang 82:327–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vrugt JA, Gupta HV, Bastidas LA, Bouten W, Sorooshian S (2003a) Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization of hydrologic models. Water Resour Res 39:1214. doi:10.1029/2002WR001746

    Google Scholar 

  • Vrugt JA, Gupta HV, Bouten W, Sorooshian S (2003b) A shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters. Water Resour Res 39:1201. doi:10.1029/2002WR001642

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang QJ (1991) The genetic algorithm and its application to calibrating conceptual rainfall‐runoff models. Water Resour Res 27:2467–2471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang QJ (1997) Using genetic algorithms to optimise model parameters. Environ Model Softw 12:27–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White ED, Easton ZM, Fuka DR, Collick AS, Adgo E, McCartney M, Awulachew SB, Selassie YG, Steenhuis TS (2011) Development and application of a physically based landscape water balance in the SWAT model. Hydrol Process 25:915–925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu Y, Liu S, Gallant AL (2012) Predicting impacts of increased CO2 and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA. Sci Total Environ 430:150–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie ZH, Su FG, Liang X, Zeng QC (2003) Applications of a surface runoff model with Horton and Dunne runoff for VIC. Adv Atomospheric Sci 20(2):165–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu C-Y (2000) Modelling the effects of climate change on water resources in central Sweden. Water Resour Manag 14:177–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu C-Y, Widén E, Halldin S (2005) Modelling hydrological consequences of climate change—progress and challenges. Adv Atmos Sci 22:789–797

  • Xu ZX, Zhao FF, Li JY (2009) Response of streamflow to climate change in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin. Quat Int 208:62–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan F, Xie ZH, Xia J (2005) Simulating hydrologic changes with climate change scenarios in the Haihe River Basin. Pedosphere 15:595–600

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhan CS, Zeng SD, Jiang SS, Wang XH, Ye W (2014) An integrated approach for partitioning the effect of climate change and human activities on surface runoff. Water Resour Manag 28(11):3843–3858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Chiew FHS (2009) Relative merits of different methods for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments. Water Resour Res 45, doi: 10.1029/2008WR007504

  • Zhang X, Srinivasan R, Hao E (2007) Predicting hydrologic response to climate change in the Luohe River basin using the SWAT model. Trans ASABE 50:901–910

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Srinivasan R, Zhao K, Liew MV (2009) Evaluation of global optimization algorithms for parameter calibration of a computationally intensive hydrologic model. Hydrol Process 23:430–441

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao R (1992) The Xinanjiang model applied in China. J Hydrol 135:371–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao RJ, Liu XR, Singh VP (1995) The Xinanjiang model. Comput Models Watershed Hydrol, 215–232

  • Zuo DP, Xu ZX, Wu W, Zhao J, Zhao FF (2014) Identification of streamflow response to climate change and human activities in the Wei River Basin, China. Water Resour Manag 28(3):833–8551

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Prof. Hongrui Wang for his helpful suggestions and to Dr. Yaomin Qin for his help in mapping. Funding was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 50809004, 51279006), the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41330529) and the National Major Science and Technology Projects for Water Pollution Control and Management (Nos.2012ZX07203-002, 2012ZX07203-003). The HIMS model was programmed and provided for their studies by Prof. Changming Liu, Zhonggen Wang and Hongxing zheng (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China

    Yan Jiang & Xuyong Li

  2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Changming Liu

Authors
  1. Yan Jiang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Changming Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Xuyong Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yan Jiang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jiang, Y., Liu, C. & Li, X. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Simulated by HIMS Models in the Luanhe River Basin, North China. Water Resour Manage 29, 1365–1384 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0881-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0881-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation