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A Factorial-based Dynamic Analysis Method for Reservoir Operation Under Fuzzy-stochastic Uncertainties

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Abstract

In this study, a factorial-based fuzzy-stochastic dynamic programming (FFS-DP) method is developed for tackling multiple uncertainties including fuzziness, randomness and their interaction in reservoir operation management (ROM). FFS-DP is framed on the integration of stochastic dynamic programming, fuzzy-Markov chain, vertex analysis and factorial analysis techniques. It can not only deal with the conventional optimization problem for reflecting dynamic and uncertain features in ROM, but also obtain detailed effects of uncertain parameters and their interactions on the system performance. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system, where the local authority is in charge of allocating relative scant water to the downstream municipality. The results obtained can help the local authority identify desired water release policies under uncertain system conditions. Besides, the results simultaneously indicate that significant factors and their interactions can be identified in ROM. Moreover, the results can be further analyzed for generating optimal parameter inputs to obtain maximized system benefits.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholar (Grant No. 51225904) and the Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51379075 and 51190095). The authors are grateful to the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and helpful suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, S-C Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China

    D. Z. Fu, Y. P. Li & G. H. Huang

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  1. D. Z. Fu
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  2. Y. P. Li
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  3. G. H. Huang
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Correspondence to Y. P. Li.

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Fu, D.Z., Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. A Factorial-based Dynamic Analysis Method for Reservoir Operation Under Fuzzy-stochastic Uncertainties. Water Resour Manage 27, 4591–4610 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0429-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0429-6

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