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Comparative Analysis of System Dynamics and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks Modelling for Water Systems Management

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Abstract

This paper presents a comparative analysis of System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN). Both techniques are extensively used for water resources modelling due to their flexibility, effectiveness in assessing different management options, ease of operation and suitability for encouraging stakeholder involvement. Conversely, both approaches have several important differences that make them complementary. For example, while SDM is more suitable for simulating the feedback dynamics of processes, OOBN modelling is a powerful tool for modelling systems with uncertain inputs (or outputs) characterised by probability distributions. This comparative analysis is applied to the Kairouan aquifer system, Tunisia, where the aquifer plays an essential role for socio-economic development in the region. Both models produced comparable results using baseline data, and show their complementarity through a suite of scenario tests. It is shown that reducing pumping of groundwater to coastal cities may prove the key to reducing the current aquifer deficit, though local demand reduction must be considered to preserve the agricultural economy. It is suggested that water management assessment should be tackled using both approaches to complement each other, adding depth and insight, and giving a more coherent picture of the problem being addressed, allowing for robust policy decisions to be made.

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Acknowledgements

The SDM work presented here was partially funded by the EU FP7 project WASSERMed (European Framework Project Number 244255, www.wassermed.eu). JS, LVL, ZK and DS acknowledge the sharing of data by WASSERMed partners, particularly INAT (Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie; especially Z. Lili-Chabaane, H. Chakroun and I. Oueslati) and IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; especially C. Leduc and A. Ogilvie). We thank the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy for the rainfall forecast.

JLM acknowledges the contributions of: Dr. T. Jakeman (Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre (iCAM)), for support in this research line. The study for OOBN has been partially supported by the European Community FP7 project GENESIS (226536) and from the subprogram Juan de la Cierva (2010) of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation as well as from the Plan Nacional I + D + i 2008–2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

We thank two anonymous reviewers for suggesting considerable improvements to the manuscript.

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Sušnik, J., Molina, JL., Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, L.S. et al. Comparative Analysis of System Dynamics and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks Modelling for Water Systems Management. Water Resour Manage 27, 819–841 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0217-8

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