Article

Water Resources Management

, Volume 22, Issue 11, pp 1677-1708

Identification of Major Sources of Uncertainty in Current IWRM Practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin

  • P. van der KeurAffiliated withGeological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) Email author 
  • , H. J. HenriksenAffiliated withGeological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
  • , J. C. RefsgaardAffiliated withGeological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
  • , M. BrugnachAffiliated withInstitute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück (USF)
  • , C. Pahl-WostlAffiliated withInstitute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück (USF)
  • , A. DewulfAffiliated withPublic Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University
  • , H. BuiteveldAffiliated withRijkswaterstaat Centre for Water Management

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Abstract

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) can be viewed as a complex process in which the effect of adopted water management measures must be monitored and adjusted in an iterative way as new information and technology gradually become available under changing and uncertain external impacts, such as climate change. This paper identifies and characterises uncertainty as it occurs in the different stages of the IWRM process with respect to sources, nature and type of uncertainty. The present study develops a common terminology that honour the most important aspects from natural and social sciences and its application to the entire IWRM process. The proposed framework is useful by acknowledging a broad range of uncertainties regarding data, models, multiple frames and context. Relating this framework to the different steps of the IWRM cycle is helpful to determine the strategies to better handle and manage uncertainties. Finally, this general framework is illustrated for a case study in the transboundary Rhine river basin.

Keywords

Uncertainty Integrated Water Resources Management Adaptive Management Rhine basin