Skip to main content
Log in

The evidential support theory of conditionals

  • Published:
Synthese Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

According to so-called epistemic theories of conditionals, the assertability/acceptability/acceptance of a conditional requires the existence of an epistemically significant relation between the conditional’s antecedent and its consequent. This paper points to some linguistic data that our current best theories of the foregoing type appear unable to explain. Further, it presents a new theory of the same type that does not have that shortcoming. The theory is then defended against some seemingly obvious objections.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Achinstein P. (2001). The book of evidence. Oxford, Oxford University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams E.W. (1966). Probability and the logic of conditionals. In Hintikka J., Suppes P. (eds). Aspects of inductive logic. Amsterdam, North-Holland, pp. 265–316

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams E.W. (1975). The logic of conditionals. Dordrecht, Reidel

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams E.W. (1998). A primer of probability logic. Stanford, CSLI Publications

    Google Scholar 

  • Adler J. (2002). Belief’s own ethics. Cambridge, MA, MIT Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Appiah A. (1985). Assertion and conditionals. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Atlas J.D. (2005). Logic, meaning, and conversation. Oxford, Oxford University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Barker S. (1997). Material implication and general indicative conditionals. Philosophical Quarterly 47, 195–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennett J. (2003). A philosophical guide to conditionals. Oxford, Clarendon Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Bradley R. (2000). A preservation condition for conditionals. Analysis 60, 219–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burgess J.P. (2004). Review of J. Bennett, A philosophical guide to conditionals. Bulletin of Symbolic Logic 10, 565–570

    Google Scholar 

  • DeRose K. (1996). Knowledge, assertion, and lotteries. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 74, 568–580

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeRose K. (2002). Assertion, knowledge, and context. Philosophical Review 111, 167–203

    Google Scholar 

  • DeRose K., Grandy R. (1999). Conditional assertions and ‘Biscuit’ conditionals. Noûs 33, 405–420

    Google Scholar 

  • Douven I. (2002). A new solution to the paradoxes of rational acceptability. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 53, 391–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douven I. (2006a). Assertion, knowledge, and rational credibility. Philosophical Review 115, 449–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douven I. (2006b). Fitch’s paradox and probabilistic antirealism. Studia Logica 86, 151–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Douven, I. (2007a). Kaufmann on the probabilities of conditionals. Journal of Philosophical Logic (in press).

  • Douven, I. (2007b). On Bradley’s preservation condition for conditionals. Erkenntnis (in press).

  • Douven I., & Uffink J. (2003). The preface paradox revisited. Erkenntnis 59, 389–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douven I., Williamson T. (2006). Generalizing the lottery paradox. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57, 755–779

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dudman V. (1984). Parsing ‘If’-Sentences. Analysis 44, 145–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dudman V. (1992). Probability and assertion. Analysis 52, 204–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edgington, D. (1986). Do conditionals have truth-conditions? Crítica, 18, 3–30 (Reprinted in Jackson (ed.) (1991), pp. 176–201; the page reference is to the reprint).

  • Edgington D. (1995). On conditionals. Mind 104, 235–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edgington D. (1997). Commentary. In Wiggins D. (ed). M. Woods, Conditionals. Oxford, Clarendon Press, pp. 95–137

    Google Scholar 

  • Edgington D. (2000). General conditional statements: A reply to Kölbel. Mind, 109, 109–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fitelson B. (1999). The plurality of Bayesian measures of confirmation and the problem of measure sensitivity. Philosophy of Science 66, S362–S378

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foley R. (1992). The epistemology of belief and the epistemology of degrees of belief. American Philosophical Quarterly 29, 111–124

    Google Scholar 

  • Gibbard A. (1981). Two recent theories of conditionals. In: Harper W.L., Stalnaker R., Pearce G. (eds). Ifs. Dordrecht, Reidel, pp. 211–247

    Google Scholar 

  • Gillies A. (2004). Epistemic conditionals and conditional epistemics. Noûs 38, 585–616

    Google Scholar 

  • Gillies D. (2000). Philosophical theories of probability. London, Routledge

    Google Scholar 

  • Grice H.P. (1989a). Logic and conversation. In Grice H.P. (ed). Studies in the way of words. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, pp. 22–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Grice H.P. (1989b). Indicative conditionals. In: Grice H.P. (ed). Studies in the way of words. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, pp. 58–85

    Google Scholar 

  • Hájek A. (2003). What conditional probability could not be. Synthese 137, 273–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harman G. (1982). Conceptual role semantics. Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic 23, 242–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hempel, C.G. (1945). Studies in the logic of confirmation. Mind, 54, 1–26, 97–121.

  • Heylen J., Horsten L. (2006). Strict conditionals: A negative result. Philosophical Quarterly 56, 536–549

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Howson C. (2000). Hume’s problem. Oxford, Clarendon Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Jackson, F. (1979). On assertion and indicative conditionals. Philosophical Review, 88, 565–589 (Reprinted, with postscript, in Jackson (Ed.) (1991), pp. 111–135; the page references are to the reprint).

  • Jackson F. (1984). Two theories of indicative conditionals: Reply to Brian Ellis. Australasian Journal of Philosophy 62, 67–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jackson F. (1987). Conditionals. Oxford, Blackwell

    Google Scholar 

  • Jackson F. (ed). (1991). Conditionals. Oxford, Oxford University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Joyce J. (2004). Bayesianism. In: Mele A.R., Rawling P. (eds). The Oxford handbook of rationality. Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp. 132–155

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan M. (1981). A Bayesian theory of rational acceptance. Journal of Philosophy 78, 305–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaufmann S. (2004). Conditioning against the grain. Journal of Philosophical Logic 33, 583–606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kölbel M. (2000). Edgington on compounds of conditionals. Mind 109, 97–108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg H. Jr., (1961). Probability and the logic of rational belief. Middletown CT, Wesleyan University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg H., Jr. (1990). Science and reason. Oxford, Oxford University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg H., Jr. (1997). The rule of adjunction and reasonable inference. Journal of Philosophy 94, 109–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, D. K. (1976). Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philosophical Review, 85, 297–315 (Reprinted, with postscript, in Jackson (Ed.) (1991), pp. 76–101; the page reference is to the reprint.)

  • Levi I. (1974). On Indeterminate Probabilities. Journal of Philosophy 71, 391–418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maher P. (1993). Betting on theories. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin D. (1998). Mathematical evidence. In: Dales H.G., Olivieri G. (eds). Truth in mathematics. Oxford, Clarendon Press, pp. 215–231

    Google Scholar 

  • Mellor D.H. (1993). How to believe a conditional. Journal of Philosophy 90, 233–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moser P., Tlumac J. (1985). Two paradoxes of rational acceptance. Erkenntnis 23, 127–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nolan D. (2003). Defending a possible-worlds account of indicative conditionals. Philosophical Studies 116, 215–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Récanati F. (1989). The pragmatics of what is said. Mind and Language 4, 294–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Récanati F. (2002). Unarticulated Constituents. Linguistics and Philosophy 25, 299–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Fraassen B.C. (1980). Review of B. Ellis, Rational belief systems. Canadian Journal of Philosophy 10, 497–511

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson T. (2000). Knowledge and its limits. Oxford, Oxford University Press

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Igor Douven.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Douven, I. The evidential support theory of conditionals. Synthese 164, 19–44 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-007-9214-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-007-9214-5

Keywords

Navigation