Abstract
The paper explores the dynamics of child and household poverty in rural Ethiopia using three rounds of household survey and qualitative data collected by Young Lives, a longitudinal study of child poverty. It uses a mixed-method taxonomy of poverty to classify children and their households into four groups, analyse their movements in and out of poverty, and explore the underlying factors. The final section of the paper uses qualitative case studies to explore child welfare dynamics in more detail, looking at the interplay between the progress or decline of households and that of children within those households. It concludes that while the percentage of poor households within this sample reduced from 50 to 20 % between rounds 1 and 3 (2002–2009), these changes were not always beneficial to children and did not reach nearly 1 in 10 households classified as ultra-poor. A deepened understanding of those changes, employing both quantitative and qualitative methods, is deemed crucial in post-2015 millennium development goal discussions.
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Notes
The classifications refer to the current state of the household and do not acknowledge the amount of time they have spent in that state. For that reason we are not specifically looking at chronic poverty, although we identify households that have, for example, remained poor or ultra-poor over the preceding seven years.
We had hoped to look at remoteness as a factor; however, the Young Lives sample has an acknowledged ‘tarmac bias’ whereby the majority of its sites are located near main roads. Additionally, many rural sites are spread-out so even within a non-remote site there may be households that are more than 10 km from the nearest market or heath centre.
Bangladesh provides a good example of how poverty can be reduced overall while a core of poverty remains (Shepherd 2011, p6, fig. 2). This is demonstrated using three panel data sets collected by BIDS, IFPRI and Greeley from 1987 onwards.
This is the second type of Q-squaring identified by Shaffer et al. (2008) which he dubs ‘methodological integration’.
The qualitative research team visited the sites in 2009 for a sub-study on social protection, vulnerability and social mobility and took the opportunity to interview the case study children about changes in their lives since their last visit in 2008.
These estimates are based on the cross-sectional samples of round 1, round 2 and round 3 rather than the panel data sample (the panel data sample is slightly smaller as not everyone who was surveyed in round 1 was available for resurvey in rounds 2 and 3). A sensitivity analysis of the taxonomy is available from the authors upon request.
See Roelen and Camfield (2012) for a more detailed discussion.
A child is considered to have moved upwards when doing better in round 3 in comparison to round 1 and a child is considered to have move downwards when being in a worse situation in round 3 in comparison to round 1.
All names of children and sites are pseudonyms.
£1 = ETB 28.06 (exchange rate 22/08/11).
The Other Food Security Programme (OFSP) is designed to help households ‘graduate’ from PSNP by encouraging them in activities such as livestock breeding. Remaining within the programme is conditional on taking advantage of this, despite the risks for poorer households (Pankhurst 2009).
Dibaba, Naomi and Degife had siblings working for a Dutch flower company in the neighbouring town, however, this was to cover their educational expenses rather than provide support to their parents.
Wilkins Micawber is a fictional character from Charles Dickens’ 1850 novel David Copperfield. He is famous for setting one of the first poverty lines with his observation “Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds 19 and six, result happiness. Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 20 pounds ought and six, result misery.”.
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Camfield, L., Roelen, K. Household Trajectories in Rural Ethiopia: What Can a Mixed Method Approach Tell Us About the Impact of Poverty on Children?. Soc Indic Res 113, 729–749 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0298-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0298-7