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Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change

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Abstract

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the U.S. National Aquatic Gap Analysis Program, the U.S. National Climate Change and Wildlife Sciences Center, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for funding provided to complete this project. The fish occurrence database used for this research reflects countless hours of field research and data organization by stakeholders who provided their datasets. In particular, we owe a debt of gratitude to Arizona Game and Fish Department, Arizona Natural Heritage Program, New Mexico Environment Department, Utah Natural Heritage Program, Nevada Department of Wildlife, Museum of Southwestern Biology at the University of New Mexico, Arizona State University, and Arizona Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit for sharing their datasets. Previous versions of this manuscript benefitted from insightful comments by Dan Dauwalter of Trout Unlimited, Jane Fencl of the University of Washington, the Missouri Cooperative Fisheries and Wildlife Research Unit Aquatic Sciences Journal Club, Colleen Caldwell of New Mexico State University, Janine Powell of the U.S. Geological Survey, three anonymous reviewers, and the journal editors. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government or other sponsoring or participating agencies. The Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit is sponsored by the Missouri Department of Conservation, the University of Missouri, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Wildlife Management Institute.

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  1. James E. Whitney

    Present address: Department of Biology, Pittsburg State University, 223 Heckert-Wells Hall, Pittsburg, KS, 66762, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, University of Missouri, 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA

    James E. Whitney

  2. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, University of Missouri, 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA

    Joanna B. Whittier

  3. U.S. Geological Survey, Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, University of Missouri, 302 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA

    Craig P. Paukert

  4. School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

    Julian D. Olden

  5. Department of Environmental Science and Management, Portland State University, 1719 SW 10th Ave, Portland, OR, 97201, USA

    Angela L. Strecker

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Whitney, J.E., Whittier, J.B., Paukert, C.P. et al. Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change. Rev Fish Biol Fisheries 27, 463–479 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-017-9479-9

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