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Ex-post evaluation of scenarios: the case of nanotechnology societal impacts

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Abstract

Scenario development is one of the popular methods of futures studies. There has been a lot of attention paid to different methods of scenario writing in theoretical literature; but what is important is to evaluate the scenarios which has not been a matter of comprehensive study heretofore. In this paper, we have carried out a comprehensive study in this regard. Accordingly, evaluation has been divided into three categories: ex-ante evaluation, mid-term evaluation and ex-post evaluation. Ex-ante evaluation is carried out when the scenario is generating; mid-term evaluation is carried out when the scenarios are transferring; and ex-post evaluation is being done after the transfer of scenarios. It should be noted that main purpose for ex-ante evaluation is considered “effectiveness”, for mid-term evaluation “relevance”, and for ex-post evaluation “the impact”. The outstanding part of this paper is the ex-post evaluation of scenarios for societal impact of nanotechnology, (which is carried out in accordance with a former paper) whose corresponding National Iranian Nanotechnology Initiative (NINI) time began approximately 10 years ago.

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Notes

  1. Scenario based assessment method.

  2. National Iranian Nanotechnology Initiative.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

    Sepehr Ghazinoory

  2. Faculty of New Sciences & Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Fatemeh Saghafi & Sahar Kousari

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  1. Sepehr Ghazinoory
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  2. Fatemeh Saghafi
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  3. Sahar Kousari
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Correspondence to Sepehr Ghazinoory.

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Ghazinoory, S., Saghafi, F. & Kousari, S. Ex-post evaluation of scenarios: the case of nanotechnology societal impacts. Qual Quant 50, 1349–1365 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x

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