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Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach

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Abstract

Cycling is often promoted as a means of reducing urban congestion and improving health, social and environmental outcomes. However, the quantification of these potential benefits is not well established. This is due in part to practical difficulties in estimating cycling demand and a lack of sound methodologies to appraise cycling initiatives. In this paper we attempt to address this need by developing predictive models of cycle demand, relative to other transport modes, that capture not only the impacts of observed characteristics such as age and travel time but also the role of attitudes and perceptions. Using data from a stated preference survey, we estimate a hybrid choice model for cycle use that incorporates the role of attitudes towards cycling, perceptions of the image associated with cycling, and the stress arising from safety concerns. Model results indicate that the latent attitudes and perceptions explain an important part of the non-observable utility in a simple multinomial logit choice model. We also demonstrate policy analysis using the hybrid choice model, which allows comparisons of ‘hard’ policies such as the provision of parking facilities against ‘soft’ measures such as cycle promotion schemes.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Clare Sheffield at Transport for London and Tony Duckenfield at Steer Davies Gleave in making available to us the data used in this study. However, all the analyses and conclusions reported here are the responsibility of the authors alone, and do not necessarily represent the views of Transport for London or Steer Davies Gleave.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, Centre for Transport Studies, London, SW7 2AZ, UK

    Rafael Maldonado-Hinarejos, Aruna Sivakumar & John W. Polak

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  1. Rafael Maldonado-Hinarejos
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  2. Aruna Sivakumar
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  3. John W. Polak
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Correspondence to Rafael Maldonado-Hinarejos.

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Maldonado-Hinarejos, R., Sivakumar, A. & Polak, J.W. Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach. Transportation 41, 1287–1304 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-014-9551-4

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