Population and Environment

, Volume 37, Issue 1, pp 44–62

Sea-level rise and sub-county population projections in coastal Georgia

  • Mathew E. Hauer
  • Jason M. Evans
  • Clark R. Alexander
Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s11111-015-0233-8

Cite this article as:
Hauer, M.E., Evans, J.M. & Alexander, C.R. Popul Environ (2015) 37: 44. doi:10.1007/s11111-015-0233-8

Abstract

It is increasingly apparent that stressors associated with anthropocentric climate change are likely to have dramatic effects on future human settlement patterns. Although sea-level rise is one of the best understood implications of climate change, geographically precise estimation of potential population displacement due to tidewater inundation has proven remarkably problematic. At least within the USA, these problems partially stem from methodological limitations of population projection methodology at sub-county scales. Using a case study of coastal Georgia, USA, this paper develops and demonstrates a new housing unit-based population projection method that is applied at the sub-county scale of Census Block Groups. These projections are then overlaid with spatiotemporally explicit assessments of future sea-level rise inundation provided through the Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model (SLAMM). We find that between 62,000 and 159,000 people are at risk of between 1 and 2 m of sea-level rise by 2100 in coastal Georgia.

Keywords

Sea-level rise Sub-county Population projections Hammer method Housing unit method Climate change 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mathew E. Hauer
    • 1
  • Jason M. Evans
    • 2
  • Clark R. Alexander
    • 3
  1. 1.Carl Vinson Institute of GovernmentUniversity of GeorgiaAthensUSA
  2. 2.Department of Environmental Science and StudiesStetson UniversityDeLandUSA
  3. 3.Skidaway Institute of OceanographyUniversity of GeorgiaSavannahUSA

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