Population and Environment

, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp 323–339

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

  • David López-Carr
  • Narcisa G. Pricope
  • Juliann E. Aukema
  • Marta M. Jankowska
  • Christopher Funk
  • Gregory Husak
  • Joel Michaelsen
Research Brief

DOI: 10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0

Cite this article as:
López-Carr, D., Pricope, N.G., Aukema, J.E. et al. Popul Environ (2014) 35: 323. doi:10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0

Abstract

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Keywords

Climate changePopulationVulnerabilityHazardsAfricaSpatial modeling

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • David López-Carr
    • 1
  • Narcisa G. Pricope
    • 2
  • Juliann E. Aukema
    • 3
  • Marta M. Jankowska
    • 4
  • Christopher Funk
    • 5
  • Gregory Husak
    • 1
  • Joel Michaelsen
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of GeographyUniversity of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraUSA
  2. 2.Department of Geography and GeologyUniversity of North Carolina WilmingtonWilmingtonUSA
  3. 3.National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis (NCEAS)University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraUSA
  4. 4.Department of Family and Preventative Medicine, Center for Wireless and Population Health SystemsUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUSA
  5. 5.United States Geological SurveyUniversity of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraUSA