Original Paper

Population and Environment

, Volume 34, Issue 3, pp 370-399

First online:

The impacts of climate variability on household welfare in rural Mexico

  • Emmanuel SkoufiasAffiliated withThe World Bank Email author 
  • , Katja VinhaAffiliated withConsultant at the World Bank

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In light of the expected increase in weather variability from climate change, we examine the impact of weather shocks, defined as rainfall or growing degree days more than a standard deviation from their respective long-run means, on household consumption per capita. The analyses suggest that both rainfall and temperature shocks affect both food and non-food consumption. Furthermore, the results show that a household’s ability to protect its consumption from weather shocks depends on the climate region and when in the agricultural year the shock occurs. Especially, households in arid climates are not fully protected from weather shocks occurring during the beginning of the wet season (April, May, June). The results highlight the necessity to account for the underlying climatic variation as well as to carefully define the shocks.


Climate change Weather shocks Household welfare Consumption Food security Rural Mexico Livelihoods Environment

JEL Classification

D13 I31 Q54 Q12