Abstract
Despite rapid urbanization, water use in Beijing Municipality decreased between the mid-1990s and 2006, reflecting decline in industrial and agricultural uses that countervailed increases in domestic consumption. This paper applies two models linking land and water use to estimate current levels of water use in Beijing. The first, a Markov chain approach, estimates land use change over time, applying water-use-to-land-use ratios to estimate current water usage. The second, a spatially disaggregated model that projects land use by county based on county characteristics, applies water-to-land ratios to estimate water use at a given point in time. While their estimates differ, both approaches strongly suggest that the recent trend of decreasing water use has ceased—water use increased between 2006 and 2010 and is likely to increase further. The result will be increased pressure on water resources and the need for greater attention to water management policies to achieve sustainability.
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Acknowledgments
This study was jointly funded by NSFC (40921140410) and the International Cooperation Project of MOST (2010DFA22480).
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Zhang, M. Projections of water demand in view of changing land use patterns in Beijing Municipality. Popul Environ 33, 221–232 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-011-0144-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-011-0144-2