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A method predicting the earthquake-induced landslide risk by back analyses of past landslides and its application in the region of the Wenchuan 12/5/2008 earthquake

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Abstract

The work considers critical slopes located at regions with high danger and proposes a method which approximately predicts the risk of earthquake-induced excessive movement of these slopes, in the case where relevant soil strength data along their slip surface do not exist. The method utilizes (1) simplified constitutive equations predicting soil response along slip surfaces and (2) a multi-block sliding system model, both recently proposed. It involves the following steps: (a) collect relevant topographic information and laboratory test results of past landslides at the region of interest, (b) (i) analyze the relevant laboratory tests to estimate the soil constitutive parameters and (ii) estimate the mobilized residual soil strength by back analysis of relevant past landslides, (c) select constitutive model parameters for future applications at the region based on step (b) and validate them based on analysis of the triggering of the past landslides and (d) apply the selected constitutive model parameters in critical slopes in the region under consideration to predict not only whether triggering occurs, but also the post-triggering slide deformation. The paper, after describing in detail the proposed method, applies it at the Wenchuan region, where the 12th May 2008 earthquake triggered many landslides. During the application, four ring shear test results and twelve landslides of the 12th May 2008 earthquake were considered. The application was successful and the following were observed: (i) in the back analyses, the multi-block model predicted reasonably well the final configuration of all slides, (ii) apart from two significantly larger back-estimated values of the residual soil strength, small scatter existed in the other back-estimated values and (iii) the selected model parameters were duly validated under step (c). Furthermore, as the back-estimated friction angle of most landslides was less than 18°, and the materials along the slip surface have a Liquid Limit value less than 25 %, it is inferred that some, or all of the slip surface during these slides, was sheared in an undrained manner.

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Abbreviations

A:

Factor of the governing equation of motion (Eq. 3)

a 1, a 2, φ m, φ res, u 1, u 2 :

Parameters of the constitutive model (Eq. 4)

a(t), a max :

Applied acceleration history, Maximum value of a(t)

a c :

Critical acceleration for relative motion

a c-sb :

Critical acceleration of the sliding-block model

a c-sb-m :

a c-sb when the soil resistance equals φ m

a co :

a c at the initial slide configuration

a co-m, a co-r :

a co for resistance φ m and φ res along the slip surface

d :

Differential increment

D50, LL, PI:

Grain diameter for which half the sample (by weight) is smaller, Liquid Limit, Plasticity Index

E i :

Severe earthquake “i”

FSe, FSo, u st, uM :

Factors defined by Eq. (7)

g :

The acceleration of gravity

M :

Earthquake Moment magnitude

P m :

Maximum excess pore pressure

P i :

Landslide “i” caused by the Wenchuan 12/5/2008 earthquake

R i :

Ring shear test “i” from landslides triggered by the Wenchuan 12/5/2008 earthquake

R :

\(\tau /\sigma_{o}^{{\prime }}\)

R res, r :

Parameters of the previous constitutive model by Stamatopoulos and Di (2014)

t :

Time

u, u n , u i :

The displacement (a) along the slip plane, (b) along the upper segment and (c) along the segment “i”, counting uphill, of the trajectory of the multi-block model, respectively

u ave :

(u 1 + u n )/2

β, β i :

The inclination of the sliding-block model and of segment “i” of the multi-block model (Fig. 2a)

δ i :

Angle defining the inclination of the interface at node i of the multi-block model (Fig. 2a)

σ′:

Effective stress normal to the slip surface

\(\sigma_{\text{o}}^{{\prime }} ,\sigma_{\text{o - i}}^{{\prime }}\) :

Effective stress prior to the initiation of shearing normal to the slip plane and at segment “i” of the trajectory of the multi-block model

τ :

Shear stress

τ ο, τ i :

Initial shear stress and current shear stress at segment “i” of the trajectory of the multi-block model

τ i-o :

Initial value of τ i

φ, φ′:

Total and effective friction angle

φ sb, φ i :

Friction angle along the slip surface of the sliding-block model and at segment “i” of the trajectory of the multi-block model

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Acknowledgments

The work received support by the project “Novel methodologies for the assessment of risk of ground displacement” under the National Strategic Reference Framework 2007–2013 of Greece (in Greek ESPA 2007–2013), under action: Bilateral S & T Cooperation between China and Greece. The study also received support by the International Cooperation and Exchange for Science and Technology of China (No. 2016HH0079, 2015-GH02-00031-HZ).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, People’s Republic of China

    Baofeng Di & Meng Zhang

  2. Stamatopoulos and Associates Co. and Hellenic Open Univerity, 5 Isavron str, 11471, Athens, Greece

    Constantine A. Stamatopoulos, Eleni Stavrogiannopoulou & Persefoni Bampina

  3. National School of Public Administration and Local Government, G.Kitsou 24, 11522, Athens, Greece

    Miranda Dandoulaki

Authors
  1. Baofeng Di
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  2. Constantine A. Stamatopoulos
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  4. Eleni Stavrogiannopoulou
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  5. Meng Zhang
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Correspondence to Constantine A. Stamatopoulos.

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Di, B., Stamatopoulos, C.A., Dandoulaki, M. et al. A method predicting the earthquake-induced landslide risk by back analyses of past landslides and its application in the region of the Wenchuan 12/5/2008 earthquake. Nat Hazards 85, 903–927 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2611-7

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