Abstract
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the drought and flood risks of a multipurpose dam. To achieve this, A2 climate change scenarios of RegCM3 were collected about Chungju Dam in Korea. To analyze drought risks, weather data obtained by the statistical downscaling method were entered to produce runoff series by runoff modeling and water balance was analyzed based on water use scenarios to review changes in the storage volume under climate change. To analyze flood risks, changes in water levels of the dam in future flood seasons were reviewed based on the current dam operation method. The results of the review indicated that both the drought and the flood risks of the dam would increase in the future. The reason was considered to be the movement of the flood season’s runoff characteristics from July and August to August and September because of climate change. Therefore, for climate change adaptation planning, not only quantitative changes in hydrologic values but also changes in temporal characteristics should be considered and given importance.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andersson L, Wilk J, Todd MC, Hughes DA, Earle A, Kniveton D, Layberry R, Savenije HG (2006) Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River. J Hydrol 331:43–57
Anthes RA, Hsie EY, Kuo YH (1987) Description of the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 4 (MM4). NCAR Tech. rep. TN-282+STR, 66
Clark CO (1945) Storage and the unit hydrograph. Trans Am Soc Civ Eng 110:1419–1446
Cuo L, Lettenmaier DP, Alberti M, Richey JE (2009) Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin. Hydrol Process 23(6):907–933
Dunn SM, Brown I, Sample J, Post H (2012) Relationships between climate, water resources, land use and diffuse pollution and the significance of uncertainty in climate change. J Hydrol 434–435:19–35
Emanuel KA (1991) A scheme for representing cumulus convection in large-scale models. J Atmos Sci 48:2313–2335
Franczyk J, Chang H (2009) The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA. Hydrol Process 23(6):805–815
Garbrecht J, Martz LW (1993) Network and subwatershed parameters extracted from digital elevation models: the Bill’s Creek experience. Water Resour Bull 29(6):909–916
Giorgi F, Bi X, Qian Y (2003) Indirect vs. direct effects of anthropogenic sulfate on the climate of East Asia as simulated with a regional coupled climate-chemistry/aerosol model. Clim Change 58(3):345–376
Gosling SN, Taylor RG, Arnell NW, Todd MC (2011) A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:279–294
Grell GA (1993) Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon Weather Rev 121(3):764–787
Grell GA, Dudhia J, Stauffer DR (1994) Description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). NCAR Tech. rep. TN-398+STR, 121
Holtslag AAM, De Bruin EIF, Pan HL (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Weather Rev 118:1561–1575
Hosking JRM (1985) Maximum-likelihood estimation of the parameter of the generalized extreme-value distribution. Appl Stat 34(3):301–310
IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007, the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX)
Jha M, Pan Z, Takle ES, Gu R (2003) The impacts of climate change on stream flow in the upper Mississippi river basin: a regional climate model perspective. J Geophys Res 109
Jha M, Arnold JG, Gassman PW, Gu R (2004) Climate change sensitivity assessment on upper Mississippi river basin streamflows using SWAT, Working Paper 04-WP 353, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University
Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Briegleb BP, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1996) Description of the NCAR community climate model (CCM3), technical report TN-420?STR. NCAR, Boulder, p 152
Kim SJ (2011) Impact of climate change on water resources and ecological habitat in a river basin. Inha University, Doctoral Dissertation
Kim BS, Kim HS, Seoh BH, Kim NW (2007) Impact of climate change on water resources in Yongdam Dam Basin, Korea. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 21(4):355–357
Kim SJ, Lim HJ, Park GA, Park MJ, Kwon HJ (2008) Assessment of future climate change impact on DAM inflow using SLURP hydrologic model and CA-Markov technique. Korean J Remote Sens 24(1):25–33
Kim U, Jagath J, Kaluarachchi (2009) Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. J Am Water Resour As 45(6):1361–1378
Kite GW (2007) Manual for the SLURP Hydrologic Model Version 12.7
Kwak J, Kim DG, Lee JS, Kim HS (2012) Hydrological drought analysis using Copula Theory. KSCE J Civ Eng B 32(3B):161–168
Kwon HH, Kim BS (2009) Development of statistical downscaling model using nonstationary Markov chain. J Korea Water Resour As 42(3):213–225
Kyoung MS, Lee YW, Kim HS, Kim BS (2009) Assessment of climate change effect on temperature and drought in Seoul: based on the AR4 SRES A2 scenario. KSCE J Civ Eng B 30(2B):267–276
Lee HL (2005) Revaluation of reservoir operation guideline for flood season considering flood control and conservational water use. Chungnam National University, Master thesis
Martz LW, Garbrecht J (1999) Automated extraction of drainage network and watershed data from digital elevation models. Water Resour Bull 29(6):901–908
Ministry of Construction & Transportation, Korea (2006) Long-term comprehensive water resources plan (2006–2020)
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2009) Analysis of drought severity-area-frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty. J Geophys Res 114: D06120. doi:10.1029/2008JD010986
Mishra V, Keith AC, Shraddhanand S (2010) Assessment of drought due to historic climate variability and projected future climate change in the Midwestern United States. J Hydrometeorol 11(1):46–68
Mpelasoka F, Hennessy K, Jones R, Bates B (2007) Comparison of suitable drought indices for climate change impacts assessment over Australia: towards resource management. Int J Climatol 28(10):1283–1292
National Emergency Management Agency in Korea (2011) Environmental change prediction of natural disaster and design criteria of the measures for disaster prevention according to climate change
National Emergency Management Agency in Korea (2013) Establishment of national drought disaster information system
Pal JS, Small EE, Eltahir EAB (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. J Geophys Res 105:29579–29594
Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solomon F, Gao X, Francisco R, Zakey A, Winter J, Ashfaq M, Syed F, Bell JL, Diffanbaugh NS, Kamacharya J, Konare A, Martinez D, da Rocha RP, Sloan LC, Steiner A (2007) The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET: regional climate modeling for the developing world. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1395–1409
Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2005) Changes towards earlier streamflow timing across Western North America. J Clim 18:1136–1155
UNISDR (the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) (2008) Climate change and disaster risk reduction
World Meteorological Organization (2009) Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation
Yates D (2005) WEAP21—A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model: part 1: model characteristics. Water Int 30:487–500
Yu RMS, Osborn T, Conway D (2012) European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections. EGU General Assembly 2012, EGU, Vienna, Austria, p 563
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) and grant funded by the Korean government (MEST; No. 2011-0028564).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kim, S., Kwak, J., Noh, H.S. et al. Evaluation of drought and flood risks in a multipurpose dam under climate change: a case study of Chungju Dam in Korea. Nat Hazards 73, 1663–1678 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1164-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1164-x