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Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local earthquake sources

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Abstract

Deterministic analysis of local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes demonstrates the potential for extensive inundation and building damage in Napier, New Zealand. We present the first high-resolution assessments of tsunami inundation in Napier based on full simulation from tsunami generation to inundation and demonstrate the potential variability of onshore impacts due to local earthquakes. In the most extreme scenario, rupture of the whole Hikurangi subduction margin, maximum onshore flow depth exceeds 8.0 m within 200 m of the shore and exceeds 5.0 m in the city centre, with high potential for major damage to buildings. Inundation due to single-segment or splay fault rupture is relatively limited despite the magnitudes of MW 7.8 and greater. There is approximately 30 min available for evacuation of the inundation zone following a local rupture, and inundation could reach a maximum extent of 4 km. The central city is inundated by up to three waves, and Napier Port could be inundated repeatedly for 12 h. These new data on potential flow depth, arrival time and flow kinematics provide valuable information for tsunami education, exposure analysis and evacuation planning.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Craig Goodier and Hawke’s Bay Regional Council for the provision of LiDAR data, and Ursula Cochran for early review of the paper. We sincerely thank the three reviewers for providing detailed comments which helped to improve this article. This research was supported by public research funding from the Government of New Zealand. Credits for figures using an Esri ArcGIS basemap layer: GEBCO, NOAA, National Geographic, DeLorme, and Esri (Fig. 1); Esri, i-cubed, USDA, USGS, AEX, GeoEye, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, and the GIS User Community (Figs. 5, 6, 9); World Shaded Relief, copyright ESRI 2009 (Figs. 4, 7).

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  1. Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand

    Stuart A. Fraser & David M. Johnston

  2. GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

    William L. Power, Xiaoming Wang, Christof Mueller & David M. Johnston

  3. University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA

    Laura M. Wallace

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  1. Stuart A. Fraser
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Correspondence to Stuart A. Fraser.

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Fraser, S.A., Power, W.L., Wang, X. et al. Tsunami inundation in Napier, New Zealand, due to local earthquake sources. Nat Hazards 70, 415–445 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0820-x

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