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Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

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Abstract

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.

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Acknowledgements

The research work reported here was supported by NSF Grant ATM-0108741 and FSU Research Foundation Grant 1338-895-45.

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  1. T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar

    Present address: NCEP/EMC/SAIC, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD, 20746, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA

    T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar & T. N. Krishnamurti

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meterology, Pune, India

    J. Sanjay

  3. NCMRWF, New Delhi, India

    B. K. Basu & A. K. Mitra

  4. Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India

    D. V. Bhaskar Rao

  5. Center for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India

    O. P. Sharma

  6. Meteorology and Oceanography Group, SAC, ISRO, Ahmedabad, India

    P. K. Pal

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  1. T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar
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Correspondence to T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar.

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Kumar, T.S.V.V., Sanjay, J., Basu, B.K. et al. Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Nat Hazards 41, 471–485 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9055-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9055-4

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