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The impact on food security and future adaptation under climate variation: a case study of Taiwan’s agriculture and fisheries

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Abstract

According to Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, climate change will lead to a severe food-supply problem. In the future, food production will continually decrease because of aggravated effects of climate change, causing food production to continually decrease. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demand of the global population, leading to a food-security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, the shortage of food will become increasingly severe, particularly for those located in “climate impact hotspots” of tropical, subtropical, small-island countries, and countries that are dependent on imports to meet domestic demand such as Taiwan. Numerous Taiwanese studies have suggested that agricultural and fishery productivity has declined because of climate variation, which may cause changes and instability in food quantity and quality, and increase deficiency and uncertainty in the food supply. Therefore, to discuss the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, this paper, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies. TaiCCAT’s supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA) was adopted here to assess and analyze the current situations of agricultural and fisheries production and supply, as well as future food supply risks, in addition to evaluating the deficiencies in the existing climate adaptation strategies in order to plan and revise feasible future adaptation alternatives. Based on the rule of risk management, the adaptation strategies recommended in this study were differentiated into two categories: proactive adaptation and planned adaptation. Proactive adaptation is emphasized to counter the uncertainty of food production, which increases the difficulty of production and necessity to import food. Conversely, planned adaptation can be used to manage the uncertainty of food supply to implement adjustments in production and marketing, as well as to mitigate the impact of climate variation.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by a research grant awarded by the National Science Council (NSC 104-2621-M-002-002) of the Republic of China (Taiwan). We thank three anonymous reviewers and the editor of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change for their comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, No. 2, Beining Rd., Jhongjheng District, Keelung City, 202, Taiwan, Republic of China

    Ching-Hsien Ho & Hsueh-Jung Lu

  2. Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo University, Japan, 7-3-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo, Tokyo, 113-8657, Japan

    Ching-Hsien Ho & Nobuyuki Yagi

  3. Department of Agronomy, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd, Taipei, 10617, Taiwan, Republic of China

    Huu-Sheng Lur & Ying-Ting Lin

  4. Taiwan Agricultural Research Institute, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, No. 189, Zhongzheng Rd., Wufeng Dist, Taichung City, 41362, Taiwan, Republic of China

    Ming-Hwi Yao & Fang-Ching Liao

  5. Center of Excellence for the Oceans, National Taiwan Ocean University, No. 2, Beining Rd., Jhongjheng District, Keelung City, 202, Taiwan, Republic of China

    Hsueh-Jung Lu

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  1. Ching-Hsien Ho
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  2. Huu-Sheng Lur
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Ho, CH., Lur, HS., Yao, MH. et al. The impact on food security and future adaptation under climate variation: a case study of Taiwan’s agriculture and fisheries. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 23, 311–347 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9742-3

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