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Envisioning robust climate change adaptation futures for coastal regions: a comparative evaluation of cases in three continents

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Abstract

The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy development for climate change adaptation planning in (i) The South African Breede–Overberg Catchment, (ii) The Mississippi Estuary-New Orleans region and (iii) The Dutch Rhine-Meuse Estuary. The objective of the paper is twofold: to develop a better understanding of such processes and to further develop the Backcasting-Adaptive Management (BCAM) methodology. A framework for case evaluation is developed using six dimensions: (i) inputs and resources, (ii) future vision, (iii) stakeholder engagement, (iv) methodological aspects, (v) pathway development and (vi) impact. Major conclusions based on a cross-case comparison and testing propositions are (i) participatory vision development is a strong tool for climate change adaptation planning in different governance contexts and shows considerable diversity in its application in these contexts; (ii) a single, shared future vision is not a prerequisite for vision and pathway development and endorsement; (iii) broad stakeholder engagement enriches strategy development, but the involvement of marginal groups requires additional efforts and capacity building; (iv) multiple pathways and robust elements are useful but require novel expertise; and (v) more institutional embeddedness and support for participatory processes lead to better implementation of the outcomes of these processes.

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Notes

  1. The City Council of New Orleans; the City Office of Recovery Management; the City Planning Commission; private firms and architectural offices and local knowledge bodies, such as Tulane University, Loyola University and the University of New Orleans.

  2. An independent research institute for applied research in the field of water, subsurface and infrastructure.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge our gratitude to our colleagues at the Institute of Environmental Systems Research (Bjorn Fokken), Delft University of Technology (Leon Hermans and Wil Thissen), the Institute for Sustainable Futures (Damien Giurco) and Monash Sustainability Institute (Philip Wallis) for providing constructive feedback and insightful discussions on earlier drafts of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Barbarastr. 12, 49069, Osnabrück, Germany

    Tom van der Voorn & Claudia Pahl-Wostl

  2. Faculty of Technology, Policy, Management, Delft University of Technology, PO Box 5015, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

    Jaco Quist & Marjolijn Haasnoot

  3. Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH, Delft, The Netherlands

    Marjolijn Haasnoot

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  1. Tom van der Voorn
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  2. Jaco Quist
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  4. Marjolijn Haasnoot
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Correspondence to Tom van der Voorn.

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van der Voorn, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C. et al. Envisioning robust climate change adaptation futures for coastal regions: a comparative evaluation of cases in three continents. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 22, 519–546 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9686-4

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