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Two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector

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Abstract

We applied two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in Mexico’s agricultural sector. The first one was a principal component analysis (PCA) that weighted each variable separately. For the second one, we integrated the variables in a linear array in which all variables were weighted equally, and then, we used the arithmetic sum of the sub-indices of exposure and sensitivity minus the adaptive capacity to obtain the vulnerability index. We discuss the similarities and differences between two methods with respect to municipal-level maps as the outputs. The application of the method for the agricultural sector in Mexico gave us the spatial distribution of the high- and very-high vulnerability categories, which we propose as a tool for policy. The methods agreed that the very-high vulnerability category is present in 39 municipalities. Also we found that 16 % of the total population in the country is located in high-exposure areas. In addition, 41 % lives in municipalities identified as highly-sensitive. In terms of adaptive capacity, 20 % of the population lives in 1273 municipalities with low-adaptive capacity. Finally, we discuss the need for information regarding vulnerability at the national level to guide policies aimed at reducing exposure and sensitivity and increasing adaptive capacity.

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Acknowledgments

Support for this research was provided by the Government of Mexico by CONACYT funding. We are grateful with Departamento de Suelos at the Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera and Instituto de Geografía at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, where the research was conducted. Also we thank the instructors (Allan Lavell, Francisco Meza, Elizabeth Mansilla and Pascal Girot), and participants of the workshop on methodological guidelines for researching and writeshop for the Latin American region, July 25–29, 2011, held at CATIE, Turrialba, Costa Rica, organized by Dr. Lisa Schipper and supported by Stockholm Environment Institute. We gratefully acknowledge the comments and suggestions of the anonymous reviewers whose comments have substantially improved the paper.

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Correspondence to Alejandro Monterroso.

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Monterroso, A., Conde, C., Gay, C. et al. Two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 19, 445–461 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9442-y

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