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Longevity and concentration in survival times: the log-scale-location family of failure time models

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Abstract

Evidence suggests that the increasing life expectancy levels at birth witnessed over the past centuries are associated with a decreasing concentration of the survival times. The purpose of this work is to study the relationships that exist between longevity and concentration measures for some regression models for the evolution of survival. In particular, we study a family of survival models that can be used to capture the observed trends in longevity and concentration over time. The parametric family of log-scale-location models is shown to allow for modeling different trends of expected value and concentration of survival times. An extension towards mixture models is also described in order to take into account scenarios where a fraction of the population experiences short term survival. Some results are also presented for such framework. The use of both the log-scale-location family and the mixture model is illustrated through an application to period life tables from the Human Mortality Database.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy

    Chiara Gigliarano

  2. Max Planck International Research Network on Aging and European Doctoral School of Demography, Rome, Italy

    Ugofilippo Basellini

  3. Bocconi University and Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Milan, Italy

    Marco Bonetti

Authors
  1. Chiara Gigliarano
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  2. Ugofilippo Basellini
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  3. Marco Bonetti
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marco Bonetti.

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Gigliarano, C., Basellini, U. & Bonetti, M. Longevity and concentration in survival times: the log-scale-location family of failure time models. Lifetime Data Anal 23, 254–274 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-016-9356-1

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