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Outbreak propagule pressure influences the landscape spread of a wind-dispersed, epidemic-causing, plant pathogen

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Abstract

Context

Factors influencing the early stages of biological invasions, especially how the outbreak conditions project to later patterns of organism spread, is an important but rarely studied aspect of invasion biology.

Objectives

Our objectives were to determine whether a simple function relates outbreak disease levels and end epidemic magnitude for wheat stripe rust and to evaluate the potential role of propagule pressure.

Methods

We superimposed data from experimentally initiated wheat stripe rust outbreaks (disease levels ranging from 0.01 to 30 % of the wheat host) in central Oregon, USA on the function relating disease outbreak prevalence to end epidemic magnitude in the simulation program EPIMUL. We also used EPIMUL to assess an alternative hypothesis that wheat stripe rust spread is driven by outbreak area, not propagule number, by varying outbreak area and holding the outbreak disease levels constant.

Results

A simple power function related outbreak disease levels to end epidemic magnitude and expanse of spread for wheat stripe rust in simulations. When this function was superimposed on field data, there was a tolerable alignment. Simulations suggested that end epidemic magnitude and expanse of disease spread is influenced more by changes in outbreak disease levels than outbreak area.

Conclusions

The landscape spread of disease epidemics may be projected and reconstructed by the application of a simple power function with outbreak disease levels. Moreover, this relationship may be a useful starting point for projecting and reconstructing the patterns of biological invasions for r-selected species with long-distance dispersal.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Institute of Health # R01GM96685 Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases Program. We thank three anonymous reviewers and K. Moloney for providing comments that helped improve this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, 2082 Cordely Hall, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA

    Paul M. Severns, Kathryn E. Sackett & Christopher C. Mundt

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  1. Paul M. Severns
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  2. Kathryn E. Sackett
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  3. Christopher C. Mundt
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Correspondence to Paul M. Severns.

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Severns, P.M., Sackett, K.E. & Mundt, C.C. Outbreak propagule pressure influences the landscape spread of a wind-dispersed, epidemic-causing, plant pathogen. Landscape Ecol 30, 2111–2119 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0234-0

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