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Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

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Abstract

There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital demographic rates (survival, reproduction) in these populations. In turn, this amplified environmental variability enlarges population extinction risk. This paper demonstrates that currently used nature conservation policies, principles, and generic and specific design criteria have to be adapted to these new insights. A simulation shows that an increase in variation in vital demographic rates can be compensated for by increasing patch size. A small, short-lived bird species like a warbler that is highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations needs more area for compensation than a large, long-lived bird species like a Bittern. We explore the conservation problems that would arise if patches or reserve sizes would need to be increased, e.g. doubled, in order to compensate for increase in environmental variability. This issue has serious consequences for nature policy when targets are not met, and asks for new design criteria.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Ruud Foppen and Chris van Turnhout of SOVON Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology for fruitful discussion. This research was funded by the Dutch national research program ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning’ and is part of the strategic research program ‘Sustainable spatial development of ecosystems, landscapes, seas and regions’ (Project Ecological Resilience) which is funded by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Food Quality, and carried out by Wageningen University and Research centre.

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  1. Alterra, Wageningen UR, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Jana Verboom, Peter Schippers, Anouk Cormont, Marjolein Sterk, Claire C. Vos & Paul F. M. Opdam

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  1. Jana Verboom
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  2. Peter Schippers
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  3. Anouk Cormont
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Correspondence to Jana Verboom.

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Verboom, J., Schippers, P., Cormont, A. et al. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria. Landscape Ecol 25, 1289–1298 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-010-9497-7

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