Abstract
Habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity in the environment are recognized as important drivers of population structure, yet few studies have examined the combined influence of these factors. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to investigate how stochasticity in survival and reproduction influenced population dynamics on landscapes that differed in habitat configuration. Landscapes ranged from completely contiguous to highly fragmented, and simulated populations varied in mean survival probability (0.2, 0.4, 0.8) and dispersal capacity (1, 3, or 5 cells). Overall, habitat configuration had a large effect on populations, accounting for >80% of the variation in population size when mean survival and dispersal capacity were held constant. Stochasticity in survival and reproduction were much less influential, accounting for <1–14% of the variation in population size, but exacerbated the negative effects of habitat fragmentation by increasing the number of local extinctions in isolated patches. Stochasticity interacted strongly with both mean survival probability and habitat configuration. For example, survival stochasticity reduced population size when survival probability was high and habitat was fragmented, but had little effect on population size under other conditions. Reproductive stochasticity reduced population size irrespective of mean survival and habitat configuration, but had the largest effect when survival probability was intermediate and habitat was well connected. Stochasticity also enhanced the variability of population size in most cases. Contrary to expectations, increasing dispersal capacity did not increase population persistence, because the probability of finding suitable habitat within the dispersal neighborhood declined more for the same level of dispersal capacity when fragmentation was high compared to when it was low. These findings suggest that greater environmental variability, as might arise due to climate change, is likely to compound population losses due to habitat fragmentation and may directly reduce population size if reproductive output is compromised. It may also increase variability in population size.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andrewartha HG, Birch LG (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL
Bascompte J, Sole RV (1996) Habitat fragmentation and extinction thresholds in spatially explicit models. J Anim Ecol 65:465–473. doi:10.2307/5781
Beattie AJ, Culver DC (1981) The guild of myrmechores in the herbaceous flora of West Virginia forests. Ecology 62:107–115. doi:10.2307/1936674
Bossuyt B, Honnay O (2006) Interactions between plant life span, seed dispersal capacity and fecundity determine metapopulation viability in a dynamic landscape. Landscape Ecol 21:1195–1205. doi:10.1007/s10980-006-0016-9
Boyce MS, Haridas CV, Lee CT (2006) Demography in an increasingly variable world. Trends Ecol Evol 21:141–148. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.018
Brachet S, Olivieri I, Godelle B, Klein E, Frascaria-Lacoste N, Gouyon PH (1999) Dispersal and metapopulation viability in a heterogeneous landscape. J Theor Biol 198:479–495. doi:10.1006/jtbi.1999.0926
Brown JH, Kodric-Brown A (1977) Turnover rates in insular biogeography: effect of immigration on extinction. Ecology 58:445–449. doi:10.2307/1935620
Cain ML, Damman H, Muir A (1998) Seed dispersal and the Holocene migration of woodland herbs. Ecol Monogr 68:325–347
DeWoody YD, Feng ZL, Swihart RK (2005) Merging spatial and temporal structure within a metapopulation model. Am Nat 166:42–55. doi:10.1086/430639
Doak DF, Marino PC, Kareiva PM (1992) Spatial scale mediates the influence of habitat fragmentation on dispersal success: implications for conservation. Theor Popul Biol 41:315–336. doi:10.1016/0040-5809(92)90032-O
Doak DF, Morris WF, Pfister C, Kendall BE, Bruna EM (2005) Correctly estimating how environmental stochasticity influences fitness and population growth. Am Nat 166:E14–E21. doi:10.1086/430642
Drake JM (2005) Population effects of increased climate variation. Proc R Soc B-Biol Sci 272:1823–1827. doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3148
Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289:2068–2074. doi:10.1126/science.289.5487.2068
Ellner SP, Fussmann G (2003) Effects of successional dynamics on metapopulation persistence. Ecology 84:882–889. doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0882:EOSDOM]2.0.CO;2
Fahrig L (1992) Relative importance of spatial and temporal scales in a patchy environment. Theor Popul Biol 41:300–314. doi:10.1016/0040-5809(92)90031-N
Fahrig L (2001) How much habitat is enough? Biol Conserv 100:65–74. doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(00)00208-1
Fahrig L (2002) Effect of habitat fragmentation on the extinction threshold: a synthesis. Ecol Appl 12:346–353
Fahrig L (2003) Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 34:487–515. doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132419
Fahrig L, Merriam G (1985) Habitat patch connectivity and population survival. Ecology 66:1762–1768. doi:10.2307/2937372
Fahrig L, Merriam G (1994) Conservation of fragmented populations. Conserv Biol 8:50–59. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1994.08010050.x
Fahrig L, Paloheimo J (1988) Determinants of local population size in patchy habitats. Theor Popul Biol 34:194–213. doi:10.1016/0040-5809(88)90042-1
Flather CH, Bevers M (2002) Patchy reaction-diffusion and population abundance: the relative importance of habitat amount and arrangement. Am Nat 159:40–56. doi:10.1086/324120
Gardner RH (1999) RULE: map generation and a spatial analysis program. In: Klopatek JM, Gardner RH (eds) Landscape ecological analysis: issues and applications. Springer, New York, pp 280–303
Gonzalez-Megias A, Gomez JM, Sanchez-Pinero F (2005) Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for the analysis of metapopulation dynamics. Ecology 86:3264–3271. doi:10.1890/05-0387
Hanski I (1998) Metapopulation dynamics. Nature 396:41–49. doi:10.1038/23876
Harrison S, Quinn JF (1989) Correlated environments and the persistence of metapopulations. Oikos 56:293–298. doi:10.2307/3565613
Holyoak M (2000) Habitat patch arrangement and metapopulation persistence of predators and prey. Am Nat 156:378–389. doi:10.1086/303395
Honnay O, Jacquemyn H, Bossuyt B, Hermy M (2005) Forest fragmentation effects on patch occupancy and population viability of herbaceous plant species. New Phytol 166:723–736. doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2005.01352.x
IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jacquemyn H, Brys R, Hermy M (2002) Patch occupancy, population size and reproductive success of a forest herb (Primula elatior) in a fragmented landscape. Oecologia 130:617–625. doi:10.1007/s00442-001-0833-0
Johnson MP (2000) The influence of patch demographics on metapopulations, with particular reference to successional landscapes. Oikos 88:67–74. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2000.880108.x
Johst K, Drechsler M (2003) Are spatially correlated or uncorrelated disturbance regimes better for the survival of species? Oikos 103:449–456. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12770.x
Johst K, Brandl R, Eber S (2002) Metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes: the role of dispersal distance. Oikos 98:263–270. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.980208.x
Jules ES (1998) Habitat fragmentation and demographic change for a common plant: trillium in old-growth forest. Ecology 79:1645–1656
Kallimanis AS, Kunin WE, Halley JM, Sgardelis SP (2005) Metapopulation extinction risk under spatially autocorrelated disturbance. Conserv Biol 19:534–546. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00418.x
Karl TR, Knight RW, Plummer N (1995) Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the 20th-century. Nature 377:217–220. doi:10.1038/377217a0
Keymer JE, Marquet PA, Velasco-Hernandez JX, Levin SA (2000) Extinction thresholds and metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes. Am Nat 156:478–494. doi:10.1086/303407
Lande R, Engen S, Sæther B-E (2003) Stochastic population dynamics in ecology and conservation. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Levin SA (1974) Dispersion and population interactions. Am Nat 108:207–228. doi:10.1086/282900
Lewontin RC, Cohen D (1969) On population growth in a randomly varying environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 62: 1056–&
Leόn-Cortés JL, Lennon JJ, Thomas CD (2003) Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal. Oikos 102:449–464
Liebhold A, Koenig WD, Bjornstad ON (2004) Spatial synchrony in population dynamics. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 35:467–490. doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132516
Lv QM, Pitchford JW (2007) Stochastic von Bertalanffy models, with applications to fish recruitment. J Theor Biol 244:640–655. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.09.009
Matlack GR, Monde J (2004) Consequences of low mobility in spatially and temporally heterogeneous ecosystems. J Ecol 92:1025–1035. doi:10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00908.x
Melbourne BA, Hastings A (2008) Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity. Nature 454:100–103. doi:10.1038/nature06922
Mood AM, Graybill FA, Boes DC (1974) Introduction to the theory of statistics. McGraw-Hill, New York, NY
Münkemüller T, Johst K (2006) Compensatory versus over-compensatory density regulation: implications for metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes. Ecol Modell 197:171–178. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.02.041
Oborny B, Meszena G, Szabo G (2005) Dynamics of populations on the verge of extinction. Oikos 109:291–296. doi:10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13783.x
Opdam P (1990) Dispersal in fragmented populations: the key to survival. In: Bunce RGH, Howard DC (eds) Species dispersal in agricultural habitats. Belhaven Press, New York
Ouborg NJ, Vantreuren R, Vandamme JMM (1991) The significance of genetic erosion in the process of extinction. 2. Morphological variation and fitness components in populations of varying size of Salvia Pratensis L. and Scabiosa Columbaria L. Oecologia 86:359–367. doi:10.1007/BF00317601
Ovaskainen O, Hanski I (2004) Metapopulation dynamics in highly fragmented landscapes. In: Hanski I, Gaggiotti OE (eds) Ecology, genetics, and evolution of metapopulations. Elsevier Academic Press, Burlington, MA, pp 73–103
Pake CE, Venable DL (1999) Seed banks in desert annuals: implications for persistence and coexistence in variable environments. Ecology 77:1427–1435. doi:10.2307/2265540
Pearson SM, Turner MG, Gardner RH, O’Neill RV (1996) An organism-based perspective of habitat fragmentation. In: Szaro RC, Johnson DW (eds) Biodiversity in managed landscapes. Oxford University Press, New York, NY, pp 77–95
Pearson SM, Smith AB, Turner MG (1998) Forest patch size, land use, and mesic forest herbs in the French Broad River Basin, North Carolina. Castanea 63:382–395
Petchey OL, Gonzalez A, Wilson HB (1997) Effects on population persistence: the interaction between environmental noise colour, intraspecific competition and space. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 264:1841–1847. doi:10.1098/rspb.1997.0254
Pike N, Tully T, Haccou P, Ferriere R (2004) The effect of autocorrelation in environmental variability on the persistence of populations: an experimental test. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 271:2143–2148. doi:10.1098/rspb.2004.2834
Pulliam HR, Dunning JB, Liu JG (1992) Population dynamics in complex landscapes: a case study. Ecol Appl 2:165–177. doi:10.2307/1941773
Roy M, Holt RD, Barfield M (2005) Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks. Am Nat 166:246–261. doi:10.1086/431286
Saupe D (1988) Algorithms for random fractals. In: Peitgen H-O, Saupe D (eds) The science of fractal images. Springer, New York, pp 71–136
Schrott GR, With KA, King AW (2005) On the importance of landscape history for assessing extinction risk. Ecol Appl 15:493–506. doi:10.1890/04-0416
Sokal RR, Rohlf FJ (1995) Biometry: the principles and practice of statistics in biological research. W. H. Freeman and Co, New York, NY
Stacey PB, Taper M (1992) Environmental variation and the persistence of small populations. Ecol Appl 2:18–29. doi:10.2307/1941886
Taylor PD, Fahrig L, Henein K, Merriam G (1993) Connectivity is a vital element of landscape structure. Oikos 68:571–573. doi:10.2307/3544927
Thomas CD (2000) Dispersal and extinction in fragmented landscapes. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 267:139–145. doi:10.1098/rspb.2000.0978
Tischendorf L, Fahring L (2000) On the usage and measurement of landscape connectivity. Oikos 90:7–19. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2000.900102.x
Wiegand T, Moloney KA, Naves J, Knauer F (1999) Finding the missing link between landscape structure and population dynamics: a spatially explicit perspective. Am Nat 154:605–627. doi:10.1086/303272
Wiegand T, Revilla E, Moloney KA (2005) Effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population dynamics. Conserv Biol 19:108–121. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00208.x
Wiens JA, Stenseth NC, Vanhorne B, Ims RA (1993) Ecological mechanisms and landscape ecology. Oikos 66:369–380. doi:10.2307/3544931
Wilcox C, Cairns BJ, Possingham HP (2006) The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence. Ecology 87:855–863. doi:10.1890/05-0587
With KA (2004) Metapopulation dynamics: perspectives from landscape ecology. In: Hanski I, Gaggiotti OE (eds) Ecology, genetics, and evolution of metapopulations. Elsevier Academic Press, Burlington, MA, pp 23–44
With KA, Crist TO (1995) Critical thresholds in species’ responses to landscape structure. Ecology 76:2446–2459. doi:10.2307/2265819
With KA, King AW (1997) The use and misuse of neutral landscape models in ecology. Oikos 79:219–229. doi:10.2307/3546007
With KA, King AW (1999a) Dispersal success on fractal landscapes: a consequence of lacunarity thresholds. Landscape Ecol 14:73–82. doi:10.1023/A:1008030215600
With KA, King AW (1999b) Extinction thresholds for species in fractal landscapes. Conserv Biol 13:314–326. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.013002314.x
With KA, Gardner RH, Turner MG (1997) Landscape connectivity and population distributions in heterogeneous environments. Oikos 78:151–169. doi:10.2307/3545811
Acknowledgments
Many thanks to B. Danielson for his help with programming the model. B. Danielson, A. Ives, K. Wiegand and an anonymous reviewer provided valuable feedback on an earlier draft of the manuscript. This work was made possible by a grant from the Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) Program of the National Science Foundation (grant no. DEB-0218001, Coweeta LTER) and from the US Department of Energy Global Change Education Program.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fraterrigo, J.M., Pearson, S.M. & Turner, M.G. Joint effects of habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity on population dynamics. Landscape Ecol 24, 863–877 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9364-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9364-6