An Indepth Actuarial Assessment for Wife Assault Recidivism: The Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

Abstract

An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges. In 346 new cases, ODARA and PCL-R independently predicted recidivism. An algorithm was derived for a combined instrument, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), and an experience table is presented (N = 649). Results indicated the importance of antisociality in wife assault.

Appendix: Scoring the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG)

Full scoring criteria are available from authors on request except where noted.

• 1. Number of prior domestic incidents (assault on a current or previous female cohabiting partner or her children, recorded in a police occurrence report or criminal record)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{0}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ {\text{1}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{0}} \\ \ge \,{\text{2}}\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 5}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 2. Number of prior nondomestic incidents (assault on any person other than a current or previous female cohabiting partner or her children, recorded in a police occurrence report or criminal record)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{0}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ \ge \,1\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 5}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 3. Prior correctional sentence of 30 days or more

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{No}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ {\text{Yes}}\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 2}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 4. Failure on prior conditional release

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{No}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ {\text{Yes}}\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 2}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 5. Threat to harm or kill at the index incident (threat of physical harm made towards any person other than himself)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{No}}\, & {\text{ = }} & 0 \\ {\text{Yes}}\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 1}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 6. Confinement at the index incident (any attempt to physically prevent the female victim from leaving the scene of the incident)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{No}}\, & {\text{ = }} & 0 \\ {\text{Yes}}\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 1}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 7. Victim concern (concern, fear, worry, or certainty about possible future domestic assault, stated at the time of the index incident)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{No}}\, & {\text{ = }} & 0 \\ {\text{Yes}}\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 2}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 8. Number of children

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} \le {\text{1}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ \ge {\text{2}}\, & {\text{ = }}\, & {\text{ + 1}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 9. Victim’s number of biological children from a previous partner

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{0}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ {\text{1}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{0}} \\ \ge {\text{2}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{ + 2}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 10. Violence against others (any assault on any person other than a current or previous female cohabiting partner or her children)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{No}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{0}} \\ {\text{Yes}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{ + 8}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 11. Substance abuse score

  • One point is allotted for each of the following: alcohol involved in the index incident, drugs involved in the index incident, alcohol or drug abuse in days/weeks prior to index incident, increased drug or alcohol use in days/weeks prior to index incident, more angry or violent when using drugs or alcohol, alcohol involved in a prior criminal offense, adult alcohol problem, adult drug problem.

    $$ \begin{aligned}{} \le \,{\text{1}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{2}} \\ \ge \,{\text{2}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{ + 2}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 12. Assault on victim when pregnant (index assault or prior)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{No}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{0}} \\ {\text{Yes}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{ + 5}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 13. Number of barriers to victim support

  • One point is allotted for each of the following: victim has children aged ≤ 18 to care for; victim has no telephone or transportation; victim is isolated geographically or from community; victim alcohol use in the index incident or victim adult alcohol or drug problem.

    $$ \begin{aligned}{} {\text{0}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ {\text{ 1}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{0}} \\ {\text{ }} \ge \,{\text{2}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{ + 4}} \\ \end{aligned} $$

• 14. Psychopathy Checklist-Revised Score (full scoring criteria available in Hare, 2003)

  $$ \begin{aligned}{} \le \,{\text{9}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \, - {\text{1}} \\ {\text{ 10 - 16}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{ + 1 }} \\ \ge \,{\text{17}}\, & {\text{ = }} & \,{\text{ + 6}} \\ \end{aligned} $$