Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders

, Volume 41, Issue 2, pp 227–236

Evaluation of a Records-Review Surveillance System Used to Determine the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorders

Authors

    • Developmental Disabilities BranchCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Lisa D. Wiggins
    • Developmental Disabilities BranchCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Owen Devine
    • Developmental Disabilities BranchCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Kim Van Naarden Braun
    • Developmental Disabilities BranchCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Catherine Rice
    • Developmental Disabilities BranchCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Nancy C. Hobson
    • Research Triangle Institute
  • Diana Schendel
    • Developmental Disabilities BranchCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Marshalyn Yeargin-Allsopp
    • Developmental Disabilities BranchCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s10803-010-1050-7

Cite this article as:
Nonkin Avchen, R., Wiggins, L.D., Devine, O. et al. J Autism Dev Disord (2011) 41: 227. doi:10.1007/s10803-010-1050-7

Abstract

We conducted the first study that estimates the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of a population-based autism spectrum disorders (ASD) surveillance system developed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The system employs a records-review methodology that yields ASD classification (case versus non-ASD case) and was compared with classification based on clinical examination. The study enrolled 177 children. Estimated specificity (0.96, [CI.95 = 0.94, 0.99]), PPV (0.79 [CI.95 = 0.66, 0.93]), and NPV (0.91 [CI.95 = 0.87, 0.96]) were high. Sensitivity was lower (0.60 [CI.95 = 0.45, 0.75]). Given diagnostic heterogeneity, and the broad array of ASD in the population, identifying children with ASD is challenging. Records-based surveillance yields a population-based estimate of ASD that is likely conservative.

Keywords

AutismSurveillanceSensitivitySpecificityPrevalence

Copyright information

© GovernmentEmployee: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2010