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Water Scarcity in the Andes: A Comparison of Local Perceptions and Observed Climate, Land Use and Socioeconomic Changes

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Abstract

In the Andean region of South America, understanding communities’ water perceptions is particularly important for water management as many rural communities must decide by themselves if and how they will protect their micro-watersheds and distribute their water. In this study we examine how Water User Associations in the Eastern Andes of Colombia perceive water scarcity and the relationship between this perception and observed climate, land use, and demographic changes. Results demonstrate a complex relationship between perceptions and observed changes. On the one hand, observed changes in land cover match perceptions of deforestation as the primary cause of increasing water scarcity. On the other hand, perceptions of climate driven changes in water availability are not reflected in observed precipitation data. Furthermore, water scarcity was perceived in regions where seasonal rainfall variability is higher but not in regions where annual rainfall is lower. We discuss how these results contribute to our understanding of adaptation to climate change and the implications of possible mismatches between environmental changes and local perceptions.

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Notes

  1. In this research, since the focus is on adaptation to water scarcity, there is no analysis of flooding and human responses to excess water problems.

  2. Eleven of the 13 precipitation stations have less than 10 % of monthly missing values. Comparing the 13 stations, the amount of missing data is relatively similar in the first half of the period analyzed (1962–1984) compared to the second half (1985–2006). The analysis was conducted without treating the missing data. After an outlier analysis, 7 data points were excluded from the dataset (they were negative values and other typos).

  3. The analysis is based on the whole population of WUAs. We excluded 17 water associations: in 8 cases we were unable to complete the interviews (it was not possible to contact the WUA leader or they did not want to participate). In 9 cases associations were exceptional: 8 did not use superficial water sources and one was exceptionally large (exceeding 1300 users compared to the median number of 86), which made adaptation strategies difficult to compare.

  4. Since the LULCC and rainfall data have a relatively small scale, and there is no information in the WUAs boundaries, the analysis was not conducted at the WUA scale.

  5. Rainfall stations’ elevation was not used in the interpolation model since there is no correlation among the 13 stations between rainfall and elevation (so there were no important differences between kriging and cokriging models using elevation data).

  6. Two municipalities, Tausa and Cucunuba, were excluded from the analysis since they have one or no WUAs.

  7. %CV is measured as the ratio between standard deviation and average rainfall for each station expressed as a percentage.

  8. For analysis of seasonal variability, we use dry season (6 driest months) and January fraction of total rainfall instead of monthly data coefficient of variation, since rainfall fraction has less error estimation in the kriging interpolation. As expected, rainfall fraction and coefficient of variation are highly correlated.

  9. Leaders were asked to list the principal causes for changes in water scarcity, therefore, there are multiple responses.

  10. In addition, a few leaders responded that they had short-term water scarcity due damage to infrastructure, although they explain that these problems don’t represent long-term changes in water scarcity.

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Acknowledgments

This research would not have been possible without the support of National Science Foundation (DDIG# 0926584), Inter-American Foundation, Proyecto Páramo Andino and University California Santa Barbara. The first author would like to thank the Water User associations leaders for sharing their time and opinions with him; Fundación Humedales, CAR e Instituto Humboldt for their support in Colombia, and specially to Johanna Pisco y Mario Hernandez for their incredible help during fieldwork. In addition, many thanks to Tanya Hayes for comments on earlier drafts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Studies, Institute of Public Service, Seattle University, PO Box 222000, Seattle, WA, 98122, USA

    Felipe Murtinho

  2. Bren School, University California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Christina Tague

  3. CONDESAN, Quito, Ecuador

    Bert de Bievre

  4. School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

    Hallie Eakin

  5. Geography Department, University California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    David Lopez-Carr

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Correspondence to Felipe Murtinho.

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Murtinho, F., Tague, C., de Bievre, B. et al. Water Scarcity in the Andes: A Comparison of Local Perceptions and Observed Climate, Land Use and Socioeconomic Changes. Hum Ecol 41, 667–681 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9590-z

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